[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271021
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU MAR 27 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N5W 3N10W 3N29W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 38W TO 1S46W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
8W-30W AND FROM 1N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 30W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER THE NW ATLC COVERS THE E GULF
WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE COVERING THE W GULF TO OVER MEXICO.
SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF ANCHORED IN THE W
ATLC E OF BERMUDA. THIS RIDGE IS GIVING THE GULF RETURN FLOW BUT
DUE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR THAT DOMINATES THE
GULF NO EVIDENCE OF BANKING LOW CLOUDS OR SHOWER ACTIVITY. CLEAR
SKIES COVER THE GULF THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER THE GULF THROUGH SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF EXTENDS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN N
OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE JUST W OF JAMAICA TO A 1015 MB LOW ALONG
THE COAST OF HONDURAS/BELIZE. THIS LOW IS DRIFTING WESTWARD AND
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 18N W OF 83W TO INLAND OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS N OF 17N TO OVER HISPANIOLA
TO THE SE COAST OF CUBA AND INCLUDES JAMAICA. THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED BY AN
UPPER HIGH INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH THE RIDGE EXTENDING
ACROSS THE N WINDWARD ISLANDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. MODERATE/
STRONG NE TO E TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE REGION USHERING
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 68W TO OVER THE
THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E GULF AND INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN COVERS THE NW INTO THE N/CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N47W TO 27N56W
WHERE IT PULLS UP STATIONARY ACROSS EASTERN MOST ISLANDS OF THE
TURKS AND CAICOS BECOMING A SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE CARIBBEAN
THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM
E OF THE FRONT N OF 30N. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF THE STATIONARY
FRONT FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 60W-70W. A SURFACE RIDGE THAT COVERS
THE GULF OF MEXICO IS ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC BY A 1030 MB E OF
BERMUDA NEAR 33N58W. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS THE N WINDWARD ISLANDS
ALONG 20N48W THEN NARROWING N TO BEYOND 32N38W. THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM A
LARGE UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N33W SSW INTO THE TROPICS TO
8N42W WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS COVERING THE FAR E ATLC E
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO INLAND
OVER NW AFRICA. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLC E OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH N OF THE
REGION AND S OF THE AZORES.

$$
WALLACE




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