[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270521
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU MAR 27 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 2N24W 1N31W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 35W TO 3S39W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 5W-15W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N TO THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 15W-29W AND FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
29W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING OVER THE W ATLC AND COVERS THE E
GULF WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE COVERING THE W GULF AND OVER THE
MEXICO. SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF ANCHORED IN
THE W ATLC NEAR BERMUDA. THIS RIDGE IS GIVING THE GULF RETURN
FLOW BUT DUE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR THAT
DOMINATES THE GULF NO EVIDENCE OF BANKING LOW CLOUDS OR SHOWER
ACTIVITY. CLEAR SKIES COVER THE GULF WITH SOME POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS BETWEEN CUBA AND THE FLORIDA
KEYS. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE GULF THROUGH SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF EXTENDS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN TO
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH THE ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT IS
DISSIPATING AND REMAINS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE JUST W OF
JAMAICA TO A 1015 MB LOW ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR ROATAN
ISLAND. THIS LOW IS DRIFTING WESTWARD GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS S OF 18N W OF 83W  TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND
WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 17N80W TO OVER JAMAICA AND N OF 18N
FROM HISPANIOLA TO E CUBA BETWEEN 70W-76W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED BY AN
UPPER HIGH INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH THE RIDGE EXTENDING
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. MODERATE/
STRONG NE TO E TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THE ENTIRE REGION USHERING
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 67W TO OVER THE
THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY
MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E GULF AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN
COVERS THE W INTO THE N/CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N48W TO 25N60W WHERE IT PULLS
UP STATIONARY ACROSS EASTERN MOST ISLANDS OF THE TURKS AND
CAICOS DISSIPATING INTO THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF
30N. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 250 NM W OF THE STATIONARY FRONT.
A SURFACE RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO IS ANCHORED IN
THE W ATLC BY A 1030 MB JUST W OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N66W. THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS
THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR GUADELOUPE ALONG 20N55W THEN NARROWING
N TO BEYOND 32N40W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY AN
UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N33W
SSW INTO THE TROPICS TO 9N47W WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS
COVERING THE FAR E ATLC E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO INLAND
OVER NW AFRICA. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLC E OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH N OF THE
REGION AND S OF THE AZORES.

$$
WALLACE




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