[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250507
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE MAR 25 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0445 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 4N20W 1N30W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 35W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S43W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 4N-6N
BETWEEN 13W-16W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF BRAZIL BETWEEN THE AXIS AND 2N W
OF 37W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE SURROUNDING A 1029 MB SFC HIGH OVER
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RESIDES OVER THE GULF PRODUCING 20 TO 25 KT
RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THESE MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS THE SFC HIGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF
DRIZZLE PERSIST OVER THE W GULF AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DUE TO
THE ONSHORE FLOW BACKING UP AGAINST THE SIERRA MADRES.
ELSEWHERE...FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS DOT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE GULF WHILE THE E GULF REMAINS MOSTLY CLEAR UNDER
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN. AS OF 03Z...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS ANALYZED
FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N80W ALONG 20N83W TO JUST OFF THE COAST
OF BELIZE NEAR 18N87W. WEAK CONVECTION EXTENDS UP TO 40 NM AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT IS NOTED PRIMARILY BY WIND SPEED
CONVERGENCE WITH 15-20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT AND 5-10 KT JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A DIMINISHING PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER
PUERTO RICO FROM 20N76W TO 15N79W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING INTO
THE SW GULF FROM A 1007 MB LOW OVER COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE
LOW-TOPPED TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES. ALOFT...SWLY FLOW AROUND AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 13N61W IS TRANSPORTING HIGH CLOUDS/MOISTURE FROM
THE PACIFIC ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM PANAMA TO
HISPANIOLA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 03Z...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR
31N70W AND STRETCHES ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W AND OVER
CUBA NEAR 22N79W. A BAND OF CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS 100NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY REACH GALE FORCE BEHIND THE FRONT N OF
30N E OF 75W. TRANQUIL WEATHER PERSISTS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC DUE TO A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 37N40W. FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS FLOW AROUND
THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 26N25W WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW CENTER S TO NEAR 21N24W. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ALOFT...A TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE COLD
FRONT. A SECOND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER E ATLC WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 12N40W. SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH IS TRANSPORTING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC TO
AFRICA S OF A LINE FROM 11N37W TO 23N17W.


$$
WADDINGTON






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