[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250018
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON MAR 24 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 4N20W 1N30W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 33N TO 2S44W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF
THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 12W-15W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF
BRAZIL FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 42W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC A COLD FRONT HAS JUST EXITED THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND HAS PUSHED INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND W ATLANTIC.  A 1033 MB
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N MISSISSIPPI NEAR 34N90W PRODUCING 15-20
KT NELY SURFACE FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE PERSIST OVER THE W
GULF AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SW OF A LINE FROM MATAMOROS MEXICO
TO MERIDA MEXICO DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW.  ELSEWHERE ...BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA E OF 82W.  MOSTLY FAIR SKIES ARE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.  A NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS IS NOW OVER THE GULF.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF
A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS
ALONG 86W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF EXCEPT FOR
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.  EXPECT...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO
CLEAR UP OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE THE DRIZZLE OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE DECREASES.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM W CUBA TO BELIZE
ALONG 24N80W 18N88W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
FRONT.  A PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ALONG 21N80W 16N80W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTEND FROM THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO
CENTRAL CUBA.  A 1009 MB LOW IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR
9N74W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 73W-75W.
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 65W MOVING W WITH THE TRADES.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W.  AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED E OF
TRINIDAD NEAR 11N57W PRODUCING SWLY FLOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF
80W.  A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 65W-80W.  EXPECT...THE COLD
FRONT TO EXTEND FROM E CUBA TO BELIZE IN 24 HOURS WITH
CONVECTION.  ALSO EXPECT INCREASED PRECIPITATION OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN AND PANAMA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N72W
AND EXTENDS SW TO E CUBA NEAR 23N80W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 71W-74W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT.  A 1034 MB HIGH
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 36N43W.  A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W.  A
WEAK 1014 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC W OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS NEAR 26N24W.  A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO
23N20W 20N20W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 75W.  A RIDGE IS BETWEEN 40W-75W.  A
TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 40W.  AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N31W.  EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E
AND EXTEND FROM 32N60W TO E CUBA NEAR 21N75W WITH CONVECTION IN
24 HOURS.   GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN LESS THAN
24 HOURS N OF 30N W OF FRONT TO 75W NW WINDS.

$$
FORMOSA



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