[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191816
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N24W 2N37W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 42W THEN CONTINUES TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT
2S45W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 3S-3N BETWEEN 7W-10W.  CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2S-4N
BETWEEN 26W-30W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
1N-5N BETWEEN 33W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S ALABAMA TO THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE TO S MEXICO ALONG 30N88W 24N90W 17N95W.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.  THE SW GULF OF MEXICO
HAS GALE FORCE WINDS S OF 24N ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT.  20-30
KT WINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.  NWLY WINDS ARE N
OF FRONT WHILE SELY WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT.  BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED SKIES ARE OVER THE GULF FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE
IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 80W.  SWLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS
THUS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  A 110-130 KT JETSTREAM EXTENDS
FROM NE MEXICO TO LOUISIANA.  A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.  EXPECT...THE COLD
FRONT TO EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN 24
HOURS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE LESSER ANTILLES S
OF GUADALOUPE ALONG 16N60W 15N67W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
30 NM OF THE FRONT.  MODERATE TRADES ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND
CENTRAL AMERICA MOSTLY E OF 85W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE
IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE
AREA.  EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN...AND THE TRADEWINDS TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DUE TO THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N70W PRODUCING FAIR
WEATHER.  A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N41W
AND EXTENDS SW TO THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 28N42W 20N50W
16N60W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM E
OF THE FRONT N OF 27N.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT.  GALE FORCE WINDS ARE N OF 27N ON
BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT.  A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE AZORES NEAR
40N29W.  A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 25N28W
15N48W.  A PLUME AFRICAN DUST IS NOTED OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC E OF 50W AND S OF 16N.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE
IS W OF 70W.  A TROUGH IS N OF 10N BETWEEN 40W-70W.  ZONAL FLOW
IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC S OF 30N.  EXPECT THE COLD
FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO MOVE E TO THE E ATLANTIC IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BE FROM 32N35W TO 17N50W.

$$
FORMOSA






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