[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191037
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N9W 5N12W 1N26W 2N36W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR E OF 7W ACROSS THE
PRIME MERIDIAN. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
90 NM OF LINE FROM EQ24W TO 3N38W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE
ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 21W-26W AND FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 8W-13W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AT 19/0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF
ENTERING OVER LOUISIANA JUST E OF VERMILION BAY EXTENDING S
ALONG 25N92W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO JUST N OF TUXPAN. A
PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR NEW ORLEANS
LOUISIANA ALONG 26N91W TO 21N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT.
BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE FRONT. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW IS MOVING
FROM TEXAS INTO OKLAHOMA. A FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER
THE W ATLC TO OVER FLORIDA AND COUPLED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE W GULF IS PRODUCING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH GALE FORCE WINDS
OVER THE N/CENTRAL GULF...SEE MIAHSFAT2 FOR MORE DETAILS. A
BROAD HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF E OF THE FRONT
AND THE E U.S. ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH BETWEEN THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND CUBA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE COVERING MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO
THE NW CARIBBEAN...A SECOND UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE S CARIBBEAN
ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC DIPS INTO THE E CARIBBEAN CREATING A SHEAR AXIS
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE N WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF JAMAICA TO
NEAR 19N84W. THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO S
OF HISPANIOLA WITH PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR REMAINS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA THROUGH FRI WITH GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COLOMBIAN
COAST. DANGEROUS LARGE N SWELL ARE MOVING THROUGH ATLC PASSAGES
INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 70W TO ACROSS
FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED N OF
THE REGION COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 57W TO OVER FLORIDA. THE STORM
SYSTEM REMAINS OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE AREA N OF 16N FROM 40W-70W AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N41W ALONG 23N47W TO THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS WHERE IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN INTO THE NE
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 25N AND GALE FORCE WINDS ARE BOTH E
AND W OF THE FRONT...SEE MIAHSFAT2 FOR MORE DETAILS. A
POST-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N49W TO 24N55W
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF
28N BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE SURFACE TROUGH. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY STABLE AIR COVER MOST OF THE REGION THUS LIMITING ANY
FURTHER AREA OF SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS. ZONAL WSW UPPER FLOW COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 40W AND SURFACE RIDGE COVERING
THE E ATLC E OF 40W AND ANCHORED BY A HIGH WELL N OF THE REGION.

$$
WALLACE



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