[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111030
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N7W 2N11W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR
18W THEN ALONG 1S25W 1S39W TO 2S46W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3W-13W BETWEEN THE THE COAST
OF SW AFRICA TO ACROSS THE EQUATOR. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF 5N W OF 45W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WITH THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT ENTERING THE GULF AT
11/0900 UTC THROUGH A 1018 MB LOW ALONG THE SE LOUISIANA COAST
NEAR 30N89W THEN SW ALONG 25N94W INTO MEXICO S OF TAMPICO. THIS
FRONT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM
E OF THE FRONT N OF 24N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM W OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS
DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH IN
THE CARIBBEAN AND IS GIVING THE AREA SW UPPER FLOW. A SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE FAR SE U.S. AND W ATLC CONTINUES TO WEAKEN BUT IS
STILL PROVIDING RETURN FLOW OVER THE GULF E OF THE FRONT BANKING
BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE FILLING
THE AREA W OF THE FRONT. A JETSTREAM WITH WINDS FROM 90 TO 115
KT IS OVER THE GULF N OF A LINE FROM BROWNSVILLE TEXAS ACROSS
FLORIDA JUST S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSVERSE THE GULF TODAY AND WEAKEN IN THE W ATLC ON WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER THE AREA
BETWEEN SE CUBA,,,HAITI...AND JAMAICA WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH FROM
THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE E CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS TO THE ABC ISLANDS. MODERATE NE TO E TRADE
WINDS DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND ARE USHERING IN
ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE FAR SE U.S. CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER
THE W ATLC W OF THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONT ANCHORED BY A SERIES OF
WEAK HIGHS N OF THE REGION. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS IN THE CENTRAL
ATLC ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N53W EXTENDING TO 26N64W WHERE IT
BECOMES A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
REMAINS N OF THE REGION. OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE FRONT AND N OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH TO 30N. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM
THE UPPER HIGH IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM A WEAK UPPER LOW
NEAR 33N40W SW ALONG 21N48W INTO THE E CARIBBEAN OVER THE N
WINDWARD ISLANDS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N45W TO
NEAR 27N48W BUT DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR
THAT DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLC THERE IS ONLY SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS PRESENT. A SECOND UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE FAR E
ATLC E OF 20N WITH AN UPPER LOW INLAND OVER W AFRICA. A SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC E OF 40W ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH
BETWEEN THE AZORES AND THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. AN UPPER HIGH IS IN
THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N30W AMPLIFYING NORTHWARD AND COVERS
THE TROPICAL ATLC WITH A JETSTREAM OF WINDS FROM 90 TO 115 KT
ALONG THE NW PERIPHERY WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM 17N45W TO NEAR
28N27W.

$$
WALLACE



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