[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110453
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 2N18W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 26W THEN ALONG 1S39W TO 2S46W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO 12W
BETWEEN THE EQUATOR AND 5N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 16W-28W AND FROM
1N-6N W OF 45W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS OVER E TEXAS AND MOVING TOWARD THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT ENTERING THE
GULF AT 11/0300 UTC OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA NEAR VERMILION BAY TO
25N97W THEN INTO MEXICO S OF LAGUNA MADRE WITH THE WESTERN
EXTENSION OF THE FRONT SLIDING FASTER DOWN THE E SLOPES OF THE
SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. THIS FRONT IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED BY AN
UPPER HIGH IN THE CARIBBEAN AND IS GIVING THE AREA SW UPPER
FLOW. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE FAR E U.S. AND W ATLC IS
PROVIDING RETURN FLOW OVER THE GULF E OF THE FRONT BANKING
BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CLEARING SKIES W OF
THE FRONT. A JETSTREAM WITH WINDS FROM 90 TO 115 KT IS OVER THE
GULF N OF A LINE FROM JUST N OF TAMPICO MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA S
OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE FRONT WILL TRANSVERSE THE GULF TODAY AND
WEAKEN IN THE W ATLC ON WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR THE SE COAST
OF CUBA WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS INTO
THE E CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE N WINDWARD ISLANDS TO THE ABC
ISLANDS. MODERATE NE TO E TRADE WINDS DOMINATES THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN AND ARE USHERING IN ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR
DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT IN THE FAR NW AREA WHERE THE
REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS
FROM FAR W CUBA THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINS IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC ENTERING THE
AREA E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N58W EXTENDING TO 26N70W WHERE IT
WEAKENS FURTHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W TO OVER
CENTRAL CUBA TO NEAR HAVANA WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
REMAINS N OF THE REGION. OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE FRONT. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE FAR E U.S. IS BUILDING OVER THE W ATLC W OF THE FRONT
ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH OFF THE GEORGIA COAST NEAR 32N75W AND
A 1028 MB HIGH N OF THE REGION. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC
EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER HIGH IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER
TROUGH IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM
A WEAK UPPER LOW NEAR 32N42W SW ALONG 23N48W INTO THE E
CARIBBEAN OVER THE N WINDWARD ISLANDS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 30N46W TO NEAR 21N51W BUT DUE TO THE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR THAT DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLC
THERE IS ONLY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS PRESENT. A SECOND UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE FAR E ATLC S OF THE CANARY ISLANDS AND
AN UPPER LOW INLAND OVER W AFRICA. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E
ATLC E OF 40W ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH S OF THE AZORES. AN
UPPER HIGH IS IN THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N28W AMPLIFYING
NORTHWARD AND COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC WITH A JETSTREAM OF WINDS
FROM 90 TO 110 KT ALONG THE NW PERIPHERY WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE
FROM 18N46W TO NEAR 28N30W.

$$
WALLACE




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