[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101744
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N16W 1N24W 2S35W 2S44W.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 3N E OF 3W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
15W-17W AND FROM 3N-4N BETWEEN 8W-10W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
PATCHY SHALLOW CLOUDINESS AND EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS COVER MUCH
OF THE REGION ESPECIALLY S OF 24N AND W OF 91W ENHANCED BY A
LOW-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO. A SIMILAR ENHANCEMENT
IS ALSO OCCURRING IN THE E GULF FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 84W-86W
NEAR A LOW-MID LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER. HOWEVER...A SUBSIDENT
ENVIRONMENT ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
IS SUPPRESSING VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. A SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL
TROUGH OVER TEXAS IS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND WILL MOVE
OVER THE N GULF IN 12-24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER
THE W CARIB NEAR 14N81W WHILE A SHARP MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS SWWD FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO N VENEZUELA. THE
ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE UPPER SYSTEMS IS STRONGLY
SUBSIDENT...ESPECIALLY E OF 75W WHERE THE UPPER FLOW IS
CONFLUENT. AT THE SFC...A DISSIPATING STALLED FRONT EXTENDS FROM
W CUBA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 22N80W 19N88W. THIS
BOUNDARY IS NO LONGER A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER AND SHOULD
WASH OUT LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW. ELSEWHERE...TYPICAL PATCHES OF
LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOVING FROM
THE NE TO SW ACROSS THE SEA MAINLY E OF 77W STEERED BY MODERATE
TO STRONG TRADES.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LOCATED FROM 32N61W TO 27N69W...CONTINUES
TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARDS THE SE THEN BECOMES STATIONARY AND
DISSIPATES ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO W CUBA. LOW AND
MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT AND WITHIN 150 NM W
OF THE STATIONARY S PORTION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
FRONT AND A 1033 MB HIGH OVER SE VIRGINIA IS PRODUCING NE WINDS
TO 25 KT. THIS CONDITION WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES.

THE OTHER NOTABLE SFC FEATURE IS THE REFLECTION OF A DISSIPATING
CUT OFF LOW...PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED SHALLOW SHOWERS WITHIN
480 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS 31N44W 24N49W. THIS SFC
TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE N END OF A SHARP MID-UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. STRONG SWLY UPPER FLOW ON THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH IS
PRODUCING ABUNDANT MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND ENHANCING
CONVECTION NEAR THE NE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA. A 1030 MB HIGH S
OF THE AZORES NEAR 34N28W IS ENHANCING NE TRADES IN THE E ATLC
TODAY. THIS CONDITION WILL SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS NE AND WEAKENS.

$$
CANGIALOSI/FIORINO


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