[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101020
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON MAR 10 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 5N13W 2N20W 2N35W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 41W TO 2S46W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS SE OF A LINE FROM BEYOND THE PRIME MERIDIAN NEAR
5N TO S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 8W. AN UPPER HIGH IN THE DEEP
TROPICS IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC
WITH EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 10N
W OF 40W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER HIGH IN THE CARIBBEAN IS GIVING THE GULF UPPER SW
FLOW. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE E U.S. IS PROVIDING
RETURN FLOW OVER THE W GULF BANKING BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER ALL BU THE NE GULF. THE REMNANTS OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE NW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING LOW CLOUDS
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SE GULF AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA
STRAITS. A JETSTREAM WITH WINDS FROM 90 TO 115 KT IS OVER THE
GULF N OF A LINE FROM NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR
LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF LATE
TONIGHT/TUE MORNING SKIRTING THE N GULF AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
ON WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA NEAR
SANTA CLARA TO THE YUCATAN NEAR N BELIZE AND COUPLED WITH THE
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW OVER THE W CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING
BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF A LINE
FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 80W TO THE TIP OF NICARAGUA/HONDURAS.
MODERATE/STRONG NE TO E TRADE WINDS DOMINATES THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR
THE SE COAST OF CUBA WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDS INTO THE E CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LEEWARD/WINDWARD ISLANDS
TO THE ABC ISLANDS AND USHERING IN CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE
AIR COVERS THE CARIBBEAN E OF A LINE FROM E CUBA TO CENTRAL
AMERICA LIMITING ANY OTHER AREAS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC E OF BERMUDA NEAR
32N63W EXTENDING TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W TO ACROSS
CENTRAL CUBA NEAR SANTA CLARA WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
REMAINS N OF THE REGION. OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS
THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER HIGH IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. AN
UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 32N43W SW
INTO THE E CARIBBEAN OVER THE LEEWARD/WINDWARD ISLANDS. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N45W THROUGH A WEAK 1016 MB LOW
NEAR 25N46W TO 22N49W BUT DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
STABLE AIR THAT DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLC THERE IS ONLY
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS PRESENT. A SECOND UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER
THE FAR E ATLC TO S OF THE CANARY ISLANDS WITH NO SURFACE
FEATURES IN THE REGION. AN UPPER HIGH IS IN THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 10N26W AND COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC WITH A JETSTREAM OF
WINDS FROM 90 TO 120 KT ALONG THE N PERIPHERY WITHIN 200 NM OF
LINE FROM 17N50W 26N33W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA NEAR 23N15W.

$$
WALLACE



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