[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 090612
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN MAR 09 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM NORTHERN LIBERIA TO 3N15W 1N20W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG
30W...ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 30W AND 42W...
GOING SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR AT 42W INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL
NEAR 4S50W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF 7N EAST OF 53W. OTHER
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS POSSIBLE FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN
40W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF 71W...AND THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA...
FROM TWO DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS. THE BASE OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH
THAT IS STEERING THE MOST RECENT COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH THE
GULF OF MEXICO REACHES CENTRAL GEORGIA. BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF 71W.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVING AROUND THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA COMBINES WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ALREADY IN PLACE BECAUSE OF THE
RELATIVE POSITION OF THE BASE OF THE CENTRAL GEORGIA TROUGH.
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO YESTERDAY
NOW PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N72W TO 28N75W...
THROUGH THE BAHAMAS TO 23N78W JUST NORTH OF CUBA. A STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES FROM 23N78W ACROSS CUBA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA
NEAR 20N82W...TO 18N84W...AND TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER
NEAR 15N85W. A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 26N87W. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
90 NM TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THROUGH 32N70W
28N73W 22N78W. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE NORTH
AND WEST OF 19N76W 19N81W 16N84W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 71W...

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW CUTS INTO THE ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW WEST OF 71W THANKS TO AN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA. CLUSTERS OF
LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE ENTERING THE
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 70W...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
OTHER POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE IN SOUTHERN HAITI...AND SOUTH OF 17N
WEST OF 73W IN BROAD SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 70W....

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM A WEAKENING
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 30N35W...TO 25N50W TO 21N60W
TO 13N69W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GALE-FORCE WIND EVENT
OF THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS ENDED. THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
HAS WEAKENED COMPARATIVELY TO A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
27N38W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 23N44W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 30W AND 37W.
OTHER POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 31N BETWEEN
29W AND 37W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE 30N35W CYCLONIC CENTER AND 30N35W 13N69W
TROUGH.

$$
MT


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