[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082345
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT MAR 08 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 1N20W EQ30W EQ40W 2S50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE
COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 1W-8W.  ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 10W-15W...FROM 5S-4N BETWEEN
20W-34W...AND FROM 3S-5N BETWEEN 39W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 24N93W.  THE HIGH IS USHERING IN A COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MASS BEHIND THE RECENT COLD FRONT.  OVERCAST COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO
TO THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS S OF A
LINE FROM 23N98W 19N91W.  NLY 20-25 KT SURFACE WINDS REMAIN OVER
THE E GULF E OF 86W.  10-15 ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 13N78W PRODUCING
SWLY FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  A 110-130 KT JETSTREAM IS
OVER THE N GULF FROM S TEXAS TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE HOWEVER
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE NOT NOTED.  EXPECT...INCREASED CLOUDINESS
OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 2100 UTC A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO
HONDURAS ALONG 22N79W 18N84W 15N85W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF FRONT.  FRESH TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 15N.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST
OF NICARAGUA NEAR 13N78W.  ANTICYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS W OF
70W.  THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
E OF 70W.  A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM HONDURAS
TO CENTRAL CUBA.  THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO
BECOME STATIONARY WITHIN 12 HOURS AND THEN BEGIN TO RETROGRADE
BACK N WHILE DISSIPATING WITHIN 24 HOURS.  EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN....
AS OF 2100 UTC...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM
32N74W TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W.  ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.  A 1031 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 36N53W.  A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS NEAR
21N71W.  A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 27N38W.  A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO
20N41W.  EXPECT THIS SURFACE LOW TO MOVE SW TO 24N44W IN 24
HOURS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W
OF 65W.  A TROUGH IS BETWEEN 45W-65W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 30N35W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 27N-32N
BETWEEN 30W-36W.  A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
TROPICAL E ATLANTIC NEAR 12N17W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 26N E OF 50W.   AN AREA OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH
CLOUDS IS OVER THE TROPICS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 18N BETWEEN
35W-48W.  EXPECT...THE NRN PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E
TO 32N64W IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.

$$
FORMOSA



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