[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051120
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED MAR 05 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 36W TO 3S42W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM
EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 6W-18W AND FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 31W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYER LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE
EASTERN U.SS EXTENDS FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. WEATHER RADAR INDICATES A NARROW LINE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE SW GULF. OTHERWISE
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS DISSIPATING ALONG THE FRONT. W OF THE
FRONT WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO BELOW GALE FORCE AS WEAK HIGH PRES
1018 MB IS OVER THE SW GULF NEAR 23N93W RELAXING THE PRES
GRADIENT. A 90-100 KT JET EXTENDS FROM BROWNSVILLE TEXAS ACROSS
THE N CENTRAL GULF...NEAR 29N90W TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. BROKEN
CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 200 NM S OF THE JET AXIS W OF 87W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MID/UPPER RIDGE CONTROLS THE PATTERN ALOFT IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR
16N81W. THE SOUTHERN END OF AN ATLC TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. WIDESPREAD
SUBSIDENCE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE UPPER SYSTEMS KEEPING THE
TYPICAL SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PATCHES. SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE THICKEST CLOUD PATCHES ARE NEAR THE LEEWARD
AND WINDWARD ISLANDS AND MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PORTION N OF 15N
BETWEEN 65W-78W. AS USUAL...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED QUICK MOVING
SHOWERS AND ARE LIKELY EMBEDDED IN THESE PATCHES. TRADE WINDS
REMAIN ON THE STRONG SIDE ESPECIALLY IN THE TYPICAL ENHANCED
ZONE NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS ARE TO 30 KT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN....
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS TO 32N69W. LARGE SFC RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE ATLC W OF
AROUND 40W. FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE BENEATH THIS RIDGE
EXCEPT FOR AN AREA OF WEAKENING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 24N-27N
BETWEEN 60W-66W....LIKELY DUE TO A SMALL WEAK MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. AN UPPER TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM 32N32W TO 25N40W
CONTINUING SW TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SURFACE COLD FRONT CLIPS
THE N PORTION OF THE REGION EXTENDING FROM 32N33W TO 26N40W.
LITTLE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT EXCEPT
FOR BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS NW OF THE FRONT TO 60W. IN THE
TROPICS...AN E-W STRETCHED RIDGE WITH ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTERED NEAR 5N17W. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE
IS AIDING CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ.

$$
DGS


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