[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 050537
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED MAR 05 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 2N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 36W TO 3S42W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM
2N-6N BETWEEN 8W-13W AND IS WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS
FROM 19W-23W AND FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 31W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO
STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYER LOW PRES SYSTEM
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG. SATELLITE INDICATES LINES OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE FLORIDA KEYS
ARE DISSIPATING. OTHERWISE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ALSO DISSIPATING
OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. W OF THE FRONT WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO
BELOW GALE FORCE AS WEAK HIGH PRES HAS NOW ENTERED THE WESTERN
GULF RELAXING THE PRES GRADIENT. A 85-100 KT JET EXTENDS FROM
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS ACROSS THE N CENTRAL GULF...NEAR 28N90W TO THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND. BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 200 NM S OF
THE JET W OF 90W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE EXTENDS FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TOWARD THE
N SHORE OF COLOMBIA WHILE A MID TO UPPER RIDGE CONTROLS THE
PATTERN ALOFT IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE UPPER SYSTEMS KEEPING THE TYPICAL SHALLOW
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PATCHES. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE
THICKEST CLOUD PATCHES ARE NEAR THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS
AND MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PORTION N OF 16N BETWEEN 65W-78W. AS
USUAL...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED QUICK MOVING SHOWERS AND ARE
LIKELY EMBEDDED IN THESE PATCHES. TRADE WINDS REMAIN ON THE
STRONG SIDE ESPECIALLY IN THE TYPICAL ENHANCED ZONE NEAR THE
COLOMBIAN COAST WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS ARE TO 30 KT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN....
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS TO 32N72W. LARGE SFC RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE ATLC W OF
AROUND 42W. FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE BENEATH THIS RIDGE
EXCEPT FOR AN AREA OF WEAKENING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 24N-27N
BETWEEN 63W-68W....LIKELY DUE TO A SMALL WEAK MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. AN UPPER TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM 32N32W TO 24N41W.
SURFACE COLD FRONT CLIPS THE N PORTION OF THE REGION EXTENDING
FROM 32N35W TO 26N41W. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT EXCEPT FOR BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS NW OF THE
FRONT TO 60W. IN THE TROPICS...AN E-W STRETCHED RIDGE WITH
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 4N23W. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE IS AIDING CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ.

$$
DGS

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