[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 301055
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W S OF 12N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
POSITION BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION AND CONTINUITY AND ANY
CONVECTION REMAINS LIKELY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A
LOW-AMPLITUDE INVERTED-V SATELLITE SIGNATURE IS NOTED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. LOW-LEVEL CURVATURE IS ALSO NOTED FROM 6N-11N
ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N
BETWEEN 44W-46W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. THE
POSITION OF THE AXIS IS BASED ON CONTINUITY.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 77W S OF 20N
FROM WRN JAMAICA TO ERN PANAMA MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE
MIMIC-TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS SUGGESTS WAVE HAS A SUSTAINED
NORTHWARD SURGE OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE
SATELLITE IMAGERY EXHIBITS AN INVERTED-V CLOUD SIGNATURE FROM
12N-16N. VERY DRY STABLE AIR IS ALOFT INHIBITING ANY DEEP
CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N11W 8N25W 5N34W 8N37W 10N44W
10N47W AND INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 9N60W. IN ADDITION TO
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 10W-16W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 22W-34W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 40W-44W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 55W-59W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SITUATED S OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST
EXTENDS ACROSS THE NRN GULF TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. AN UPPER
RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WHICH IS ANCHORED ACROSS
SRN MEXICO NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. DIFFLUENT W-SW FLOW
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS ADVECTING A DEEP LAYER OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND IS SUPPORTING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF A LINE FROM NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO ENE TO
NEAR ST. PETERSBURG FLORIDA ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GULF.
AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS ALSO ALONG COASTAL
MEXICO IN THE WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT PATTERN. A BAND OF HIGH-MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS MOVING
AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SERN CONUS AND IS ACROSS
THE FAR NRN GULF WATERS BETWEEN GALVESTON TEXAS AND THE ERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. EXPECT THIS FRONTAL TROUGH TO ENTER THE NE
GULF LATE MON BEFORE DISSIPATING TUE BRINGING WITH IT THE
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS. A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA AND INTO MEXICO PRODUCING LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE REGION.

CARIBBEAN...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
THE CARIBBEAN. DIVERGENCE ALONG THE SRN EXTENT OF A WRN UPPER
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SRN MEXICO COUPLED WITH LOW-LEVEL WIND SPEED
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 8N-12N
BETWEEN 76W-84W AND ALONG COASTAL NICARAGUA/HONDURAS. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE BASE OF A UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE IS INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION IN THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 72W-81W. DIVERGENCE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS N OF 15N AS WELL AS OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND
THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS. A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE BASIN WITH STRONG EASTERLY TRADES THROUGHOUT.

ATLANTIC...
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS IS PRODUCING A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE W ATLC W OF 76W N OF 30N. THIS
ACTIVITY IS AIDED BY INSTABILITY ALONG AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LOCATED ACROSS NRN FLORIDA AND THE N CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
ELSEWHERE...SWLY UPPER FLOW AROUND AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED EAST
OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 14N49W IS ADVECTING MOISTURE INTO
THE ATLC S OF 23N AND W OF 55W. THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA IS DOMINATED BY A VERY STABLE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE
E ATLC BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 35N36W SW OF THE AZORES
AND A SECOND 1026 MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC E OF BERMUDA
CENTERED NEAR 33N59W. BOTH OF THESE SURFACE RIDGES ARE
MAINTAINING MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE ERN AND
CENTRAL ATLC.

$$
HUFFMAN




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