[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300554
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W/35W S OF 12N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE
WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ WITH SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 32W-35W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A
LOW-AMPLITUDE INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
FROM 8N-11N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN
43W-46W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. THE
POSITION OF THE AXIS IS BASED ON CONTINUITY.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 77W FROM ERN
CUBA THROUGH JAMAICA TO NWRN COLOMBIA MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE
WAVE IS POSITIONED BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS JAMAICA
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY EXHIBITING INVERTED-V CURVATURE FROM
11N-15N. VERY DRY STABLE AIR IS ALOFT WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTIVE CELLS BETWEEN HAITI/JAMAICA AND CUBA.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 7N20W 6N33W 5N36W 6N43W
7N46W AND INTO GUYANA NEAR 8N59W. IN ADDITION TO ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 10W-18W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90
NM OF A LINE FROM 11N21W TO 7N32W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 40W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SITUATED OFF THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA
COASTS EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW GULF TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. AN
UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WHICH IS ANCHORED
ACROSS SRN MEXICO NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. DIFFLUENT W-SW
FLOW BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS ADVECTING A DEEP LAYER OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND IS SUPPORTING WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF A LINE FROM NEAR TAMPICO
MEXICO ENE TO NEAR ST. PETERSBURG FLORIDA ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE GULF. A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS MOVING
AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SERN CONUS AND IS ACROSS
THE FAR NRN GULF WATERS BETWEEN GALVESTON TEXAS AND THE ERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. EXPECT THIS FRONTAL TROUGH TO ENTER THE NE
GULF MON BEFORE DISSIPATING TUE. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
THE CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO MEXICO
PRODUCING LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW THROUGHOUT THE REGION.

CARIBBEAN...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
THE CARIBBEAN. DIVERGENCE ALONG THE SRN EXTENT OF A WRN UPPER
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SRN MEXICO COUPLED WITH LOW-LEVEL WIND SPEED
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-13N
BETWEEN 81W-84W AND ACROSS INLAND NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE BASE OF A UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE IS INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION IN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 73W-81W WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING
A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS BETWEEN HAITI/JAMAICA AND CUBA MOST LIKELY
DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 77W. DIVERGENCE ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 15N AS WELL AS OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTO
RICO...AND THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS. A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE BASIN WITH STRONG EASTERLY TRADES THROUGHOUT.

ATLANTIC...
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS IS PUSHING A BAND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE W ATLC W OF 79W N OF 29N. A
SECOND AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THIS
ACTIVITY IS INDUCED BY INSTABILITY ALONG AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE N CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. ELSEWHERE...
SWLY UPPER FLOW AROUND A HIGH EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS
ADVECTING MOISTURE INTO THE ATLC S OF 23N AND W OF 55W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS DOMINATED BY A VERY STABLE
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR
34N33W SW OF THE AZORES AND A SECOND 1027 MB HIGH E OF BERMUDA
CENTERED NEAR 32N60W. BOTH OF THESE SURFACE RIDGES ARE
MAINTAINING MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE ERN AND
CENTRAL ATLC.

$$
HUFFMAN




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