[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230506
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUN 23 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0415 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W S OF 18N MOVING W 20-25 KT. WAVE WAS
RELOCATED BASED ON MIMIC-TPC ANIMATION AND BROAD INVERTED-V
SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. ISOLATED
SHOWERS COVER A BROAD AREA FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 50W-61W. THIS
WAVE WILL BE BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE LESSER ANTILLES
DURING THE NIGHT AND CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE WAVE
PASSES.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG 86W S OF 19N MOVING W
20-25 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL INVERTED-V
CURVATURE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 18N W OF 84W TO INLAND OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N12W 5N32W 8N52W 8N50W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE
THE ITCZ E OF 20W TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA AND WITHIN 250 NM OF
THE ITCZ FROM 31W-42W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM OF THE ITCZ
FROM 20W-31W AND WITHIN 180 OF THE ITCZ FROM 52W TO INLAND OVER
SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE W GULF EXTENDING FROM W
LOUISIANA TO OVER MEXICO JUST N OF TAMPICO MEXICO. AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE E GULF
INTO THE W ATLC OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS. THIS IS SUPPLYING
MUCH OF THE GULF WITH W TO SW UPPER FLOW AND ABUNDANCE OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT
THE REGION E OF A LINE FROM CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO NEAR TAMPICO
MEXICO WHILE THE TEXAS COAST REMAINS CLEAR TONIGHT WITH THE
HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF. WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE E GULF TO 85W
CREATING A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN AND IS PROVIDING LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION.

CARIBBEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION EXTENDS ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA AND W/CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE W ATLC COVERING THE
AREA W OF 80W WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE
TROPICAL ATLC COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER TROUGH IS BETWEEN
THESE UPPER RIDGES EXTENDING FROM ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC OVER
HISPANIOLA SW TO PANAMA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CUBA AND THE THROUGH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL N OF 21N W OF 79W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER HE S CARIBBEAN S OF 13N W OF
75W TO INLAND OVER W COLOMBIA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. MODERATE/
STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS DOMINATE MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN DUE
TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

ATLANTIC...
NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS W/CENTRAL
CUBA AND THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS TO NEAR 30N73W PROVIDING UPPER
DIFFLUENCE AND GENERATING HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90
NM OF LINE FROM 27N76W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS INTO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS TO 24N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA W OF A LINE FROM 31N71W TO CUBA NEAR
22N79W. THE MOST PROMINENT UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS THE UPPER
TROUGH THAT REMAINS ACROSS THE BASIN EXTENDING THROUGH 32N15W
ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS THE W ALONG 27N30W 24N50W23N61W THEN
SW INTO THE CARIBBEAN OVER HISPANIOLA. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES
THE ENTIRE ATLC BASIN FROM AFRICA INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO
ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N45W. MODERATE
SUBSIDENCE AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY STABLE AIR ALSO DOMINATES
THE ATLC E OF 70W GIVING THE AREA FAIR WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT.
BROAD E/W UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS TO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ENHANCING THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 54W AND THE ITCZ.

$$
WALLACE





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