[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 222353
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 20-25 KT.
BROAD MID LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OBSERVED WITHIN 250 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
8N-14N.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN ALONG 84W S OF 21N MOVING
W NEAR 20-25 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK LOW LEVEL
INVERTED-V CURVATURE MOVING ACROSS HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 82W-87W.
THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 7N30W 6N42W 5N47W 5N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN
22W-29W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 30W-36W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM
9N53W TO 8N60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE WRN GULF WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM ERN TEXAS ALONG 95W TO NEAR 21N. AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE ERN GULF INTO THE FAR
W ATLC OVER THE NW BAHAMAS. THIS IS SUPPLYING MOST OF THE GULF
WITH WSW UPPER FLOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUE E OF
THE TROUGH AXIS ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM MOBILE
ALABAMA TO NEAR 27N93W...CONTINUING AS A SECONDARY SURFACE
TROUGH IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MOST INTENSE TSTMS ACCORDING TO
LIGHTNING DATA REMAIN FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 90W-96W. DAYTIME
INSTABILITY AND A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE W ATLC AND
SRN FLORIDA IS ALSO PROVIDING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE GULF MAINLY BETWEEN 24N-27N
BETWEEN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND 86W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF FROM THE W ATLC CREATING A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN AND IS PROVIDING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION.

CARIBBEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN THE ERN
PACIFIC EXTENDS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND NW CARIBBEAN W OF
77W WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC
COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER TROUGH IS BETWEEN THESE UPPER
RIDGES EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS PUERTO RICO SW TO
NRN COLOMBIA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS CUBA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN
77W-80W. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 84W COUPLED WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA COASTS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA.
ELSEWHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS REMAIN ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLOMBIAN LOW AND EPAC ITCZ. MODERATE TO
STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS DOMINATE MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN DUE
TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

ATLANTIC...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING COVERS MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS WITH SW
UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE W ATLC WATERS. A SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N74W AND EXTENDS SW TO 29N77W. THESE TWO
FEATURES ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS SRN
FLORIDA...THE NW BAHAMAS AND PORTIONS OF THE W ATLC N OF 24N AND
W OF 73W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR
22N60W WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING SW INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE ATLC BASIN FROM AFRICA
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
32N45W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY STABLE AIR
ALSO DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF 75W GIVING THE AREA FAIR WEATHER.
BROAD E/W UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS TO OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN ENHANCING THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 45W AND THE ITCZ.

$$
HUFFMAN




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