[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 071048
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUN 07 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 31W-34W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 2N-3N BETWEEN 28W-32W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W/62W S OF 20N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES LOW/MID LEVEL ROTATION ALONG THE
WAVE AXIS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 61W-64W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 83W S OF 17N MOVING W
NEAR 10 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE MAINLY ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN AND BENEATH AN UPPER
TROUGH MASKING ANY SATELLITE SIGNATURE. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 81W-85W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 5N15W 7N30W 5N47W 4N51W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE ALONG
THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 2W-5W...AND FROM 2N-12N
BETWEEN 8W-18W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
4N-8N BETWEEN 35W-43W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 43W-48W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 48W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N74W. A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W TO TEXAS ALONG 30N. 15-20 KT SWLY WINDS
DOMINATE THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS
NOTED EXCEPT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE S OF 23N.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW
GULF NEAR 24N95W WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.  AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S MISSISSIPPI NEAR 30N89W WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE E OF 90W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SURFACE
PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA TO SOUTH MEXICO ALONG THE
LINE 10N83W 19N93W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 25N70W PRODUCING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
18N-21N BETWEEN 68W-73W.  EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO CONTINUE
TO MOVE W WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.

ATLANTIC...
A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N74W. A
LARGE 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED S OF THE AZORES NEAR 38N27W.  A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THIS HIGH TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 24N55W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N70W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS W OF
65W.  A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 55W-65W. A TROUGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-55W.  ZONAL FLOW IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND E OF 30W. IN THE TROPICS AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AT 15N25W.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS S OF 20N E OF 40W.  EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO
DIP INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N46W IN 24 HOURS WITH
CONVECTION.

$$
FORMOSA





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