[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070543
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT JUN 07 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NO DEEP CONVECTION. BROKEN/OVERCAST
LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W/60W S OF 19N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES LOW/MID LEVEL ROTATION ALONG THE
WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEAR
BARBADOS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NEAR TRINIDAD FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 59W-61W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 81W S OF 17N MOVING W
NEAR 10 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE MAINLY ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN AND BENEATH AN UPPER
TROUGH MASKING ANY SATELLITE SIGNATURE. THE POSITION IS BASED
LARGELY ON CONTINUITY.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N5W 3N12W 5N30W 6N50W 5N53W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE ALONG
THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 6W-9W...AND FROM 5N-12N
BETWEEN 10W-16W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-3N
BETWEEN 26W-30W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 32W-36W...AND FROM 4N-7N
BETWEEN 44W-50W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N
BETWEEN 36W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N73W. A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W TO TEXAS ALONG 30N. 15-20 KT SWLY WINDS
DOMINATE THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS
NOTED EXCEPT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE S OF 22N.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW
GULF NEAR 22N96W WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.  AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR
30N87W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE E OF 90W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SURFACE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA TO SOUTH MEXICO ALONG THE
LINE 10N83W 19N93W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 25N70W PRODUCING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
18N-21N BETWEEN 68W-73W.  EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO CONTINUE
TO MOVE W WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.

ATLANTIC...
A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N73W. A
LARGE 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED S OF THE AZORES NEAR 37N28W.  A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THIS HIGH TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 28N45W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N70W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS W OF
65W.  A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 55W-65W. A TROUGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-55W.  ZONAL FLOW IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND E OF 30W. IN THE TROPICS AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AT 15N25W.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS S OF 20N E OF 40W.  EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO
DIP INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N46W IN 24 HOURS WITH
CONVECTION.

$$
FORMOSA






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