[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 021134
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUN 02 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
WAVE REMAINS WITH A FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE ON THE MIMIC-TPW
ANIMATION AND WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS
EVIDENT ALONG THE AXIS CENTERED NEAR 8N. DESPITE THE
ORGANIZATION IN STRUCTURE...CONVECTION IS LIMITED AND MAINLY
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W S OF 14N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE HAS
MAINTAINED A FAIR AMOUNT OF AMPLITUDE ACCORDING TO THE
TPW-ANIMATION OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS FROM
8N-12N BETWEEN 53W-55W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W/65W S OF 11N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE
REMAINS INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL VENEZUELA WITH ONLY A NARROW
MOISTURE PLUME EVIDENT ON THE TPW-ANIMATION. MOST CONVECTION
REMAINS SPARSE ACROSS CENTRAL VENEZUELA AND IS INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N9W 4N16W 6N27W 4N31W 1N41W 5N52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN
3W-14W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 90 NM OF A LINE FROM 5N21W TO 1S23W. SIMILAR CONVECTION
IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 38W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...REMNANT OF T.D. ARTHUR...LOCATED ACROSS
S MEXICO IS PRODUCING NE-E 15-20 KT WINDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE S CENTRAL GULF AND S BAY OF CAMPECHE. WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING AND AN EMBEDDED 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 28N86W ARE OVER THE N
GULF OF MEXICO N OF 24N WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND 5-10 KT
WINDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN INLAND HOWEVER OVER W AND CENTRAL
CUBA INCLUDING ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FROM 79W-83W IN RESPONSE
TO WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE SE GULF. LARGE
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION RESIDES OVER W CENTRAL MEXICO PROVIDING
NLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF. THE ASSOCIATED STABLE AND DRY
AIR IS SUPPRESSING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWER OR
TSTM ACTIVITY. EXPECT REMNANT LOW ACROSS S MEXICO TO PRODUCE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE S BAY OF CAMPECHE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT ENCOUNTERS TERRAIN EFFECTS AND
WEAKENS FURTHER ACROSS S MEXICO.

CARIBBEAN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NW
CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 80W AND A VAST MAJORITY OF CENTRAL AMERICA
AND S MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED
ALONG THE BELIZE COAST AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM 15N-20N
BETWEEN 86W-89W. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODS/MUDSLIDES ARE ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE OVER S
MEXICO...GUATEMALA AND BELIZE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. ELSEWHERE
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 81W-84W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 76W-80W IN ASSOCIATION WITH COLOMBIAN
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS PRODUCING MOSTLY NW
FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN W OF 71W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 71W WHICH IS HELPING TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS E HISPANIOLA...
PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC...
A LARGE 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
35N40W. THIS SURFACE FEATURE IS DOMINATING MOST OF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN N OF 15N AND PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING COVERS MUCH OF THE W ATLC WITH
AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N59W. WITHIN THE
TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS NWD FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE W ATLC N OF E HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO
BETWEEN 63W-69W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR
11N49W WITH RIDGE AXIS EXPANDING NWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC TO
NEAR 32N42W. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS
TO NEAR 21N32W.

$$
HUFFMAN




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