[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020551
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUN 02 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ARTHUR IS CENTERED OVER S MEXICO NEAR 17.4N
91.3W OR NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN BORDER BETWEEN GUATEMALA AND
MEXICO ABOUT 95 MILES...150 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CIUDAD DEL
CARMEN MEXICO AT 02/0300 UTC MOVING SW AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE MARINE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE
MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.
PRESENTLY BELIZE...NRN GUATEMALA...AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS HAVE
THE HEAVIEST RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 15N-20N
BETWEEN 86W-94W. ARTHUR AND ITS REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5-10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF
BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES. AS ALWAYS IN THESE CASES...THE RAINFALL
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
WAVE REMAINS WITH A FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE ON THE MIMIC-TPW
ANIMATION AND WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS
EVIDENT ALONG THE AXIS CENTERED NEAR 9N. DESPITE THE
ORGANIZATION IN STRUCTURE...CONVECTION IS LIMITED AND MAINLY
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W S OF 14N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE HAS
MAINTAINED A FAIR AMOUNT OF AMPLITUDE ACCORDING TO THE
TPW-ANIMATION OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. CURRENTLY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE
IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 51W-57W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W S OF 11N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS
INLAND ACROSS E VENEZUELA WITH ONLY A NARROW MOISTURE PLUME
EVIDENT ON THE TPW-ANIMATION. MOST CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED
ACROSS SE VENEZUELA AND IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 6N18W 6N27W 4N30W 2N40W 3N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM MOSTLY
INLAND OVER W AFRICA FROM 4N-13N BETWEEN 3W-14W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 5N20W TO
2S23W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN
25W-29W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM
1S-4N BETWEEN 39W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAKENING TROPICAL DEPRESSION ARTHUR AND ITS REMNANTS ARE
PRODUCING NE-E 15-20 KT WINDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE S
CENTRAL GULF AND S BAY OF CAMPECHE. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AND AN
EMBEDDED 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 28N86W IS OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO
N OF 24N WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND 5-10 KT WINDS. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND HOWEVER OVER CUBA AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS FROM 79W-85W IN RESPONSE TO WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING ACROSS THE SE GULF. LARGE ANTICYCLONE RESIDES OVER W
CENTRAL MEXICO PROVIDING NLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF. THE
ASSOCIATED STABLE AND DRY AIR IS SUPPRESSING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWER OR TSTM ACTIVITY. EXPECT REMNANT LOW FROM
ARTHUR TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE S BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS ARTHUR WEAKENS INLAND ACROSS S MEXICO.

CARIBBEAN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NW
CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 82W AND A VAST MAJORITY OF CENTRAL AMERICA
AND S MEXICO. STRONGEST CONVECTION IS LOCATED ALONG THE BELIZE
COAST AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODS/MUDSLIDES ARE ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE OVER
S MEXICO...GUATEMALA AND BELIZE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ELSEWHERE SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS IN
THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 81W-84W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 76W-79W IN ASSOCIATION WITH
COLOMBIAN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS PRODUCING
MOSTLY NW FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN W OF 71W. BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 71W WHICH IS HELPING
TO AID IN SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS E HISPANIOLA AND
PUERTO RICO.

ATLANTIC...
A LARGE QUASI-STATIONARY 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N40W. THIS SURFACE FEATURE IS DOMINATING
MOST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN N OF 15N AND PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING COVERS
MUCH OF THE W ATLC WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NEAR 31N59W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR
12N47W WITH RIDGE AXIS EXPANDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLC TO 32N45W. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CANARY
ISLANDS TO NEAR 23N30W.

$$
HUFFMAN


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net