[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 281100
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST ABOUT 20 KT. THIS WAVE SHOWS UP WELL IN THE LAST
VISIBLE IMAGES OF YESTERDAY AND IN CURRENT INFRARED IMAGERY.
NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W/56W SOUTH OF 21N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE FROM 13N TO 21N
BETWEEN 50W AND THE WAVE. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM
22N55W TO 27N52W TO 31N46W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 23N56W 28N49W BEYOND 31N43W.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST ABOUT 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW. SHOWERS NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN 75W AND
84W MAY BE RELATED TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND NOT THE TROPICAL
WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...
11N15W 10N25W 11N37W 8N47W 12N55W 11N61W. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 14W AND 15W...AND WITHIN
A 30 NM RADIUS OF 10N22W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 5N TO 13N BETWEEN 10W AND
20W...AND FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 58W AND
61W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N
BETWEEN 30W AND 42W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW MOVES
AWAY FROM THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA INTO WEST CENTRAL MEXICO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.
THE FLOW IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA ALSO MOVES AWAY
FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND BECOMES
CYCLONIC...MOVING TOWARD ONE DISTINCT CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF
26N BETWEEN THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND 91W ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA COAST. A 1015 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS IN AN AREA OF
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR 27N91W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS JUST SOUTH OF CUBA
AND JUST NORTHWEST OF JAMAICA. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER
MOVES ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...AND IT EVENTUALLY REACHES HONDURAS AND MAYBE
EVEN EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
ENTIRE AREA NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 70W ACROSS THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND YUCATAN
CHANNEL. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND PANAMA/COSTA RICA/THE REST OF
NICARAGUA AND CURVES INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF
THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE CYCLONIC CENTER. A COMPARATIVELY
WEAKER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA. THE CYCLONIC CENTER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER IS SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PUSHING AWAY FROM THE U.S.A.
EAST COAST INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH
REACHES NEAR 30N77W. UPPER LEVEL FLOW MOVES FROM JUST NORTHEAST
OF THE BAHAMAS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TOWARD A NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SOUTH OF 30N WEST OF 70W
INCLUDING ACROSS PARTS OF THE BAHAMAS TOWARD CUBA. SHOWERS ALSO
ARE ELSEWHERE BETWEEN A 31N62W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND
THE U.S.A. EAST COAST TROUGH. SHOWERS ARE AROUND THE 31N62W
CYCLONIC CENTER...AND AROUND A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR
24N67W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 40W FROM 10N BEYOND 32N.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N25W TO 23N26W.

$$
MT




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