[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 280601
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST ABOUT 20 KT. THIS WAVE SHOWS UP WELL IN THE LAST
VISIBLE IMAGES OF YESTERDAY AND IN CURRENT INFRARED IMAGERY.
NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W/55W SOUTH OF 21N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE FROM 13N TO 21N
BETWEEN 50W AND THE WAVE. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 22N55W
TO 25N54W TO 29N48W TO 31N46W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 24N53W 28N47W BEYOND 31N44W.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W SOUTH
OF 20N MOVING WEST ABOUT 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AN
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW. SHOWERS FROM 20N TO CUBA
MAY BE RELATED TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND NOT THE TROPICAL WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...
11N15W 10N26W 12N35W 8N46W 12N55W 11N61W. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 10.5N16W...AND
FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 19W AND 20W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 6N
TO 10N BETWEEN 12W AND 23W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
INDIVIDUAL CELLS FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 42W AND 43W...WITHIN
A 15 NM RADIUS OF 6N46.5W...AND FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 58W
AND 60W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF 10N WEST
OF 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW MOVES
AWAY FROM THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA INTO MAINLAND MEXICO. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 98W AND 102W SOUTH
OF A CYCLONIC CENTER. THE FLOW IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA ALSO MOVES AWAY FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND BECOMES CYCLONIC...MOVING TOWARD ONE
DISTINCT CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE LINGERING PRECIPITATION NORTH OF 26N EAST OF 90W
TO FLORIDA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE WELL INLAND IN NORTHERN
LOUISIANA...IN MISSISSIPPI FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...AND FROM EAST
CENTRAL ALABAMA BORDER WITH GEORGIA NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTH
CAROLINA. A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS IN AN AREA
OF A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR 27N93W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS JUST SOUTH OF CUBA
AND JUST NORTHWEST OF JAMAICA. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER
MOVES ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...AND IT EVENTUALLY REACHES HONDURAS AND MAYBE
EVEN EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
ENTIRE AREA NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND YUCATAN CHANNEL. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
AND PANAMA/COSTA RICA/THE REST OF NICARAGUA AND CURVES INTO
THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THE CYCLONIC CENTER. A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE CYCLONIC
CENTER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER IS SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EMERGING OFF THE U.S.A. EAST
COAST INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH REACHES
NEAR 30N. UPPER LEVEL FLOW MOVES FROM JUST NORTHEAST OF THE
BAHAMAS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TOWARD A NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SOUTH OF 26N WEST OF 70W INCLUDING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE BAHAMAS TOWARD CUBA. SHOWERS ALSO ARE NORTH
OF 28N BETWEEN A 30N62W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND THE
U.S.A. EAST COAST TROUGH. SHOWERS ARE AROUND THE 30N62W CYCLONIC
CENTER...AND AROUND A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 23N68W.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 40W FROM 10N BEYOND 32N.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N27W TO 24N28W.

$$
MT


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