[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230619 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2008

COR FOR THE BAROMETRIC PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS FOR HURRICANE DOLLY

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
DOLLY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVATIONS FROM BROWNSVILLE SUGGEST
THAT THE HURRICANE IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND SOME
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE CENTER OF
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY AT 23/0600 UTC IS NEAR 25.3N 96.3W...
OR ABOUT 76 NM/140 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
DOLLY IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 11 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST
OF TEXAS FROM BROWNSVILLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI...AND FOR THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD
TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES. PREPARATIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CORPUS
CHRISTI TO SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND
A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM LA PESCA TO SOUTH OF
RIO SAN FERNANDO. PLEASE MONITOR BULLETINS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 19 NM/35 KM FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 119 NM/220 KM. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN
TO REACH THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DOLLY IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ACROSS SECTIONS
OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...AND LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES
LANDFALL. THE CENTER OF DOLLY IS FORECAST TO BE ALONG THE
COAST NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER AROUND MIDDAY TODAY.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL AT 23/0300 UTC IS NEAR
44.0N 59.0W OR ABOUT ABOUT 200 NM/370 KM EAST OF HALIFAX NOVA
SCOTIA. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING NORTHEAST 30 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 76 NM/140 KM FROM THE CENTER. CRISTOBAL IS FORECAST
TO BE EXTRATROPICAL IN 12 HOURS OR SO.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W/26W SOUTH OF 23N...JUST WEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. A 1010 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 14N ALONG THE WAVE. A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 25W FROM 10N TO 23N. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 25W AND 28W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W/55W SOUTH OF 13N
MOVING WEST ABOUT 20 KT. NO PRECIPITATION JUST ACCOMPANIES THIS
WAVE. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ.

A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W/79W SOUTH OF
19N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. THIS WAVE EXTENDS FROM WESTERN
JAMAICA TO EASTERN PANAMA. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA
OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...
12N17W 8N30W 6N40W 6N53W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN
29W AND 60W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF 3N3W 5N11W 8N25W TO 10N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 25W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY IS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO MOVING
CLOSER AND CLOSER TO SHORE. IT IS FORECAST TO REACH NEAR THE
WESTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 12 TO
18 HOURS OR SO. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CURVES AWAY
FROM DOLLY INTO GULF OF MEXICO EVERYWHERE EAST OF DOLLY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM TROPICAL STORM DOLLY
CURVES FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE PANAMA COAST ALONG 80W.
A SEPARATE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN 23N65W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER INTO THE MONA PASSAGE.
DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE SURROUNDS THIS TROUGH. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN EXTREME NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA WITHIN
A 15 TO 30 NM RADIUS NEAR 8N75W...IN COLOMBIA FROM 6N TO 8N
BETWEEN 74W AND 75W...AND IN EASTERN PANAMA WATERS FROM 9N
TO 10N BETWEEN 77W AND 78W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
IN SUBSIDENCE IS EAST OF 64W. THE 73W/74W TROPICAL WAVE
IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE TROUGHS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
T.S. CRISTOBAL IS FORECAST TO MOVE MORE AND MORE AWAY FROM NORTH
AMERICA AND MORE AND MORE INTO THE OPEN WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN WITH TIME. ONE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN BETWEEN
70W AND 80W FROM THE BAHAMAS ISLANDS NORTHWARD. A SECOND MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 31N63W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO A 23N65W CYCLONIC CENTER INTO THE
MONA PASSAGE. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS SURROUNDED
COMPLETELY BY DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS ALONG 31N47W 23N50W
15N50W.

$$
MT



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