[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement
EMWIN Server
emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Tue Jul 22 22:35:07 CDT 2008
WTUS84 KBRO 230333 PAA
HLSBRO
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE DOLLY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1033 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008
...DOLLY STRENGTHENS SOME...MOVING A LITTLE SLOWER...
.AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.0 WEST OR ABOUT
110 MILES... 175 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A
FURTHER REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL BE ALONG THE COAST
NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER AROUND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DOLLY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO
LANDFALL.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO REACH THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE
DATA IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.
DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES
LANDFALL.
TXZ251-256-257-230700-
/O.CON.KBRO.HU.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
KENEDY-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
1033 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008
...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
DOLLY...A MINIMAL CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE...IS MOVING STEADILY
TOWARD THE COAST. THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD IS ABOUT 30 MILES EAST OF
SHORE...WITH BROKEN RAIN BANDS MOVING THROUGH CAMERON COUNTY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 60 MPH OR GREATER WILL BEGIN WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS.
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS THESE BANDS MOVE INLAND. AS THE
CORE NEARS THE COAST LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED.
RESIDENTS SHOULD HAVE COMPLETED PREPAREDNESS ACTIVITIES. MOBILE
HOME OR RECREATIONAL VEHICLE OWNERS SHOULD EVACUATE NOW.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN...
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THESE ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.
FLOOD WATCH.
TORNADO WATCH.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
TIDES ARE NOW RUNNING NEAR 2 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL AT PORT
ISABEL...AND ADDITIONAL GRADUAL RISES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH
A FINAL SURGE ARRIVING NEAR OR AROUND TIME OF THE LOWER HIGH TIDE
OF THE DAY EARLY ON WEDNESDAY.
AT SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...THE TIDE IS PREDICTED TO BE 1 FOOT ABOVE
MEAN LOW LOWER WATER...WITH SIMILAR VALUES PREDICTED AT PORT
ISABEL AT AROUND THE SAME TIME. AT THIS TIME...THE EXPECTED SURGE
WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 7 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR THE BROWNSVILLE SHIP CHANNEL. TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE DAY AS SURFACE WINDS TURN TO THE
EAST...CONTINUING TO PUSH ADDITIONAL WATER ONSHORE.
ALL RESIDENTS LIVING ON PRONE SHORELINES CAN EXPECT SOME WATER
INCURSION INTO THEIR HOMES. THOSE IN TYPICALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS
MAY HAVE A FOOT OR TWO OF WATER IN THEIR HOMES...CAUSING MINOR
DAMAGE. SHORELINE ROADS MAY BRIEFLY CLOSE WITH UP TO TWO FEET OF
WATER ACROSS...EXCEPT THOSE IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS WHICH COULD HAVE
UPWARDS OF 4 FEET OF WATER ACROSS THEM. MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS
POSSIBLE...BECOMING LIKELY IF CONDITIONS EXTEND THROUGH MULTIPLE
HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
CONDITIONS WILL BE WORSENED BY BATTERING WAVES. SUCH WAVES WILL
INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF PROPERTY DAMAGE...ESPECIALLY TO
STRUCTURES ON OR VERY NEAR THE SHORELINE.
...WINDS...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING...REACHING
25 TO 40 MPH BY MIDNIGHT. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM WINDS...40 TO 50
MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL REACH THE COAST BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
2 AM. HURRICANE FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 5 AND
9 AM AS THE INNER EYEWALL REACHES THE COAST. IN ALL
AREAS...FREQUENT HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED FROM JUST
BEFORE DAYBREAK UNTIL JUST BEFORE NOON. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY...WITH DIRECTION SHIFTING FROM NORTH TO EAST.
POORLY CONSTRUCTED OR UNSECURED MOBILE HOMES MAY BE DESTROYED.
OTHERS MAY RECEIVE SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WALLS...AND
WINDOWS...AND COULD BECOME UNINHABITABLE. HOUSES OF POOR TO
AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION MAY HAVE PARTIAL WALL AND ROOF FAILURE...AS
WELL AS BLOWN OUT WINDOWS. UNSECURED LIGHT TO MODERATE WEIGHT
OUTDOOR ITEMS WILL BECOME PROJECTILES...CAUSING ADDITIONAL DAMAGE
AND POSSIBLE INJURY. MANY AREAS COULD HAVE POWER
OUTAGES...HUNDREDS OF WIRES MAY FALL...TRANSFORMERS COULD
POP...AND SOME POWER POLES MIGHT BE PULLED DOWN.
ROTTING LARGE TREES WILL BE UPROOTED...MOST COMMON ON SATURATED
GROUND. NUMEROUS LARGE BRANCHES OF HEALTHY TREES WILL SNAP...AND
MODERATE DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE IN CITRUS ORCHARDS. UP TO ONE HALF OF
NEWLY PLANTED CROPS MAY BE DAMAGED.
...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS IN EXCESS OF 80
PERCENT...WITH AREAS CLOSER TO THE RIO GRANDE HAVING A PROBABILITY
NEAR 100 PERCENT. THE PROBABILITY FOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS 10
TO 20 PERCENT FOR KENEDY COUNTY AND UP TO 30 PERCENT FOR WILLACY
AND CAMERON COUNTIES.
...INLAND FLOODING...
INTERMITTENT HEAVY RAIN...WITH LOCAL DOWNPOURS WILL ARRIVE WITH
THE OUTER RAIN BANDS BETWEEN 10 AND 1 AM...WITH TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL BECOMING MORE FREQUENT BETWEEN 4 AND 7 AM AND LIKELY
CONTINUING FOR UP TO 6 HOURS. 6 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE
JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER IN THE CORE OF THE INNER EYEWALL...AND 3
TO 6 INCHES ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE IMMEDIATE CENTER. FLASH
OR AREAL FLOODING IS LIKELY TO BEGIN SOON AFTER DAYBREAK...IN
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS FIRST AND IN OTHER AREAS LATER. THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY ESPECIALLY IF DOLLY CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN.
SHOULD MORE THAN 10 INCHES OF RAIN FALL IN A SHORT PERIOD...THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR RESACA FLOODING IN SOME AREAS. A FLOOD WATCH IS
IN EFFECT.
EXTENSIVE FLOODING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY!
PERSONS LIVING NEAR OR IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS SHOULD PREPARE
FOR POSSIBLE EVACUATION LATER !**TODAY OR TONIGHT OR NEXT DAY**!.
IN THESE AREAS...SIGNIFICANT PROPERTY DAMAGE WILL OCCUR...AND
SOME POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY. MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE.
WATER LEVELS IN VERY POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL APPROACH 7 FEET.
OTHER POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS WILL HAVE RISES BETWEEN 3 AND 5
FEET. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT WATER RISES TO NEAR 2 FEET. NUMEROUS
MAIN ROADS WILL BE CLOSED. DRIVING IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED EXCEPT
FOR EMERGENCIES.
...TORNADOES...
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATER SPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE FIRST
SIGNIFICANT RAIN BANDS MOVE ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND BETWEEN 8
PM AND 11 PM. AN INCREASE CHANCE OF TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE AS THE
STORMS CENTER APPROACHES THE COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 2 AM CDT.
$$
GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-230700-
/O.CON.KBRO.HU.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
1033 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008
...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...NEW INFORMATION...
OUTER RAIN BANDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IMMINENT. HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS WINDS
WILL REACH THE 60 NM MARKER AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH SUSTAINED
HURRICANE WINDS BETWEEN 2 AND 5 AM...PERHAPS CONTINUING THROUGH
MID MORNING WEDNESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING BACK TO TROPICAL STORM
FORCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
SEAS CURRENTLY AT 13 FEET OFFSHORE WILL BUILD TO 15 TO 20 FEET OR
PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH VERY ROUGH CONDITIONS AND SIGNIFICANT WHITE
CAPS. BEAUFORT SCALE 12 CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE CORE OF
THE STRONGEST WINDS DURING THIS PERIOD.
ALL MARINERS SHOULD BE IN PORT NOW. ANY MARINERS NOT IN PORT
SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN...
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE LAGUNA MADRE.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THESE ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.
TORNADO WATCH.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
TIDES ARE NOW RUNNING NEAR 2 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL AT PORT
ISABEL...AND ADDITIONAL GRADUAL RISES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH
A FINAL SURGE ARRIVING NEAR OR AROUND TIME OF THE LOWER HIGH TIDE
OF THE DAY EARLY ON WEDNESDAY.
AT SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...THE TIDE IS PREDICTED TO BE 1 FOOT ABOVE
MEAN LOW LOWER WATER...WITH SIMILAR VALUES PREDICTED AT PORT
ISABEL AT AROUND THE SAME TIME. AT THIS TIME...THE EXPECTED SURGE
WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 7 FEET...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR THE BROWNSVILLE SHIP CHANNEL. TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE DAY AS SURFACE WINDS TURN TO THE
EAST...CONTINUING TO PUSH ADDITIONAL WATER ONSHORE.
ALL RESIDENTS LIVING ON PRONE SHORELINES CAN EXPECT SOME WATER
INCURSION INTO THEIR HOMES. THOSE IN TYPICALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS
MAY HAVE A FOOT OR TWO OF WATER IN THEIR HOMES...CAUSING MINOR
DAMAGE. SHORELINE ROADS MAY BRIEFLY CLOSE WITH UP TO TWO FEET OF
WATER ACROSS...EXCEPT THOSE IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS WHICH COULD HAVE
UPWARDS OF 4 FEET OF WATER ACROSS THEM. MODERATE BEACH EROSION IS
POSSIBLE...BECOMING LIKELY IF CONDITIONS EXTEND THROUGH MULTIPLE
HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
CONDITIONS WILL BE WORSENED BY BATTERING WAVES. SUCH WAVES WILL
INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF PROPERTY DAMAGE...ESPECIALLY TO
STRUCTURES ON OR VERY NEAR THE SHORELINE.
...WINDS...
WINDS ARE NEARING TROPICAL STORM FORCE NOW AND SHOULD REACH THAT
THRESHOLD BY MIDNIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND 20 NM FROM THE
CENTER...AND SHOULD REACH THE AREA NEAR SUNRISE TOMORROW.
...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS GREATER THAN 90
PERCENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...WHILE THE PROBABILITY OF
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS NEAR 10 PERCENT IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL
ZONES TO NEAR 40 PERCENT IN THE SOUTHERN AREA.
...TORNADOES...
WATERSPOUTS ARE A POSSIBILITY AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES
OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN OUTER RAIN BANDS AWAY FROM
THE CENTER.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 2AM.
$$
TXZ253>255-230700-
/O.CON.KBRO.HI.W.0001.000000T0000Z-080724T1200Z/
HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-INLAND CAMERON-
1033 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008
...HURRICANE WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT
THURSDAY...
...NEW INFORMATION...
DOLLY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE AND SHOULD REMAIN NEAR THIS
INTENSITY THROUGH LANDFALL TOMORROW AFTERNOON. OUTER RAINBAND ARE
BEGINNING TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION...WITH THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD
REACHING THE COAST JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. RESIDENTS SHOULD HAVE
COMPLETED THEIR FINAL PREPARATIONS AND SHOULD BE IN A PLACE OF
SHELTER FOR THE DURATION OF THE STORM.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN...
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THESE ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.
FLOOD WATCH.
TORNADO WATCH.
...WINDS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS REACHING THE COAST MIDMORNING
WEDNESDAY.
...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM WINDS IS IN EXCESS OF 80
PERCENT...WITH MOST OF CAMERON COUNTY ABOVE 90 PERCENT. THE
PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IS IN EXCESS OF 10
PERCENT...WITH AREAS IN CAMERON COUNTY AROUND 35 PERCENT.
...INLAND FLOODING...
INTERMITTENT HEAVY RAIN...WITH LOCAL DOWNPOURS WILL ARRIVE WITH
THE OUTER RAIN BANDS BETWEEN 10 AND 1 AM...WITH TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL BECOMING MORE FREQUENT BETWEEN 4 AND 7 AM AND LIKELY
CONTINUING FOR UP TO 6 HOURS. 6 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE
JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER IN THE CORE OF THE INNER EYEWALL...AND 3
TO 6 INCHES ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE IMMEDIATE CENTER. FLASH OR
AREAL FLOODING IS LIKELY TO BEGIN SOON AFTER DAYBREAK...IN POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS FIRST AND IN OTHER AREAS LATER. THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY ESPECIALLY IF DOLLY CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN.
SHOULD MORE THAN 10 INCHES OF RAIN FALL IN A SHORT PERIOD...THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR RESACA FLOODING IN SOME AREAS. A FLOOD WATCH IS
IN EFFECT.
EXTENSIVE FLOODING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY!
PERSONS LIVING NEAR OR IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS SHOULD PREPARE
FOR POSSIBLE EVACUATION LATER !**TODAY OR TONIGHT OR NEXT DAY**!.
IN THESE AREAS...SIGNIFICANT PROPERTY DAMAGE WILL OCCUR...AND
SOME POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY. MINOR PROPERTY DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE.
WATER LEVELS IN VERY POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL APPROACH 7 FEET.
OTHER POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS WILL HAVE RISES BETWEEN 3 AND 5
FEET. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT WATER RISES TO NEAR 2 FEET. NUMEROUS
MAIN ROADS WILL BE CLOSED. DRIVING IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED EXCEPT
FOR EMERGENCIES.
...TORNADOES...
TORNADOES ARE A POSSIBILITY AS THE OUTER RAIN BANDS MOVE ASHORE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN AREAS TO THE
NORTH OF THE CENTER. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
HIDALGO...WILLACY AND CAMERON COUNTIES.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 2 AM CDT.
$$
TXZ248>250-252-230700-
/O.CON.KBRO.TI.W.0001.000000T0000Z-080724T1200Z/
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-STARR-
1033 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008
...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT
THURSDAY...
...NEW INFORMATION...
DOLLY...A MINIMAL CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE...IS MOVING STEADILY
TOWARD THE COAST. STRONG RAIN BANDS ARE NOW 25 TO 50 MILES EAST
OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND MOVING STEADILY EAST. THESE BANDS WILL HAVE
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 60 MPH OR GREATER. TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS THESE BANDS
MOVE INLAND. AS THE CORE NEARS THE COAST LATER TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
ARE ANTICIPATED. RESIDENTS SHOULD HAVE COMPLETED PREPAREDNESS
ACTIVITIES. MOBILE HOME OR RECREATIONAL VEHICLE OWNERS SHOULD
EVACUATE.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN...
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THESE ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.
FLOOD WATCH.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
RESIDENTS SHOULD STOCK THEIR HURRICANE KITS WITH NON PERISHABLE
FOOD IN CASE OF LONG POWER OUTAGES. WHILE SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO EXCEED MORE THAN 50 MPH...THESE SPEED WILL BE ENOUGH
TO MOVE UNFASTENED LIGHTWEIGHT OBJECTS AROUND...THUS THESE SHOULD
BE MOVED INDOORS TODAY. PEOPLE LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS NEED
TO CONSIDER AN EVACUATION PLAN LATER TODAY BASED ON EXPECTED
RAINFALL OF UP TO 8 INCHES OR MORE.
...WINDS...
NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH AROUND MIDNIGHT.
INCREASING FURTHER NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE AROUND MID MORNING
WEDNESDAY. HIGHER GUSTS IN OUTER RAIN BANDS ARE POSSIBLE.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD ARRIVE BY MID TO LATE
MORNING...AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.
...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN 40 TO 60
PERCENT FOR THE ENTIRE WESTERN VALLEY. THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS IS LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
...INLAND FLOODING...
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SHOULD BEGIN IN BROOKS COUNTY BETWEEN 6 AND
10 AM...AND IN STARR...JIM HOGG...AND ZAPATA COUNTIES BETWEEN 8
AM AND NOON. HEAVIEST RAINS WILL ARRIVE BY MID TO LATE MORNING IN
BROOKS COUNTY...AND JUST AFTER NOON ELSEWHERE. THESE HEAVY RAINS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...AND COULD PERSIST
AS TORRENTIAL RAINS INTO THE NIGHT.
FOR THE EVENT...CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS A TOTAL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
AREA WIDE BETWEEN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS PERHAPS EXCEEDING 10 INCHES IN PERSISTENT BANDS CLOSE TO
THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. NUISANCE FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AND ARROYOS COULD BEGIN AS SOON AS WEDNESDAY BY MID
DAY...AND MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND PERHAPS BEYOND WHEN RAINS ARE MORE
PERSISTENT.
EXTENSIVE FLOODING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALL SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS MAY SURPASS
BANK FULL. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LAST AT LEAST 3 TO 6 HOURS. SOME
STREAMS OR ARROYOS WILL EXCEED THEIR BANKS BY SEVERAL FEET AND
MAY
FLOOD NEARBY HOMES. EVACUATIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
RIVERS IN AFFECTED AREAS WILL RISE...WITH SOME REACHING OR
EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE. NORMALLY QUICK RISING RIVERS WILL EXCEED
FLOOD STAGE BY SEVERAL FEET...FLOODING HOMES ALONG THE RIVERSIDE.
PASTURES WILL ALSO FLOOD...BUT LIVESTOCK LOSSES SHOULD BE
MINIMAL. SEVERAL SECONDARY ROADS AND BRIDGES WILL BE WASHED OUT.
DRIVING IS HIGHLY DISCOURAGED.
...TORNADOES...
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATER SPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE FIRST
SIGNIFICANT RAIN BANDS MOVE INLAND AFTER 3 AM. AN INCREASE CHANCE
OF TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE AS THE STORMS CENTER APPROACHES THE
COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND 2 AM CDT.
$$
64
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