[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT43 KNHC 220842
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032008
500 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

THE OVERALL SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE AN
EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS WHICH INDICATED PEAK WINDS AROUND 50 KT.
ACCORDINGLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.  CRISTOBAL'S FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CYCLONE OVER MUCH
COOLER SSTS AS IT CROSSES THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULF STREAM DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS FROM FLORIDA STATE
UNIVERSITY INDICATE CRISTOBAL WILL TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL
SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER....SINCE THERE WILL BE
LIMITED BAROCLINIC FORCING...WEAKENING APPEARS LIKELY.

CRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE OF 055/18.  THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO FOLLOWED BY A TURN EASTWARD BETWEEN
24-48 HOURS...THEN SOUTHEASTWARD AT DAY 3 AS THE CYCLONE MERGES
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC.  TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
ABOUT 48 HOURS BUT DIVERGES QUITE A BIT AT DAY 3.  THE NEW OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      22/0900Z 39.1N  68.2W    50 KT
 12HR VT     22/1800Z 41.0N  65.2W    45 KT
 24HR VT     23/0600Z 43.4N  60.6W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     23/1800Z 44.0N  55.7W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     24/0600Z 43.3N  50.6W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     25/0600Z 40.0N  43.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     26/0600Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER RHOME



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