[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 220625
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY AT 22/0600 UTC IS NEAR 23.2N
93.3W...OR ABOUT 278 NM/515 KM SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
DOLLY IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 16 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS
FROM BROWNSVILLE TO PORT O'CONNOR. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN
FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE UNITED
STATES. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF
PORT O'CONNOR TO SAN LUIS PASS.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LA PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO
SAN FERNANDO. PLEASE MONITOR BULLETINS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS. A TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY. THE CENTER OF DOLLY SHOULD BE REALLY CLOSE TO THE
WESTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. DOLLY IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE TO LANDFALL. TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES/325 KM FROM
THE CENTER. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF
15 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE NORTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL TIDE LEVELS AND LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES
CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER
MAKES LANDFALL.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL AT 22/0300 UTC IS NEAR
37.7N 69.8W OR ABOUT ABOUT 313 NM/580 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF
CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA...AND ABOUT 500 NM/925 KM SOUTHWEST
OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING NORTHEAST 14 KT.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. PLEASE
READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/
WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 89 NM/165 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE WIND SPEEDS OF
CRISTOBAL HAVE BECOME COMPARATIVELY SLOWER...AND MORE WEAKENING
IS FORECAST WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 35N TO 41N BETWEEN 67W AND 70W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17W/18W SOUTH OF 21N...JUST OFF THE
COAST OF AFRICA...MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. A 1009 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 15N ALONG THE WAVE. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 19W/20W FROM 10N TO 21N. STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS OF 16N19W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 7N TO 18N BETWEEN 14W AND 21W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W/49W SOUTH OF 14N
MOVING WEST ABOUT 20 KT. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN THE
ITCZ.

A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W/72W SOUTH
OF 18N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH
AN AREA OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...
11N19W 6N30W 5N42W 8N53W 7N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 25W AND
33W...FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 36W AND 39W...AND FROM 4N TO 5N
BETWEEN 44W AND 45W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE
SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY IS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. IT IS
FORECAST TO REACH NEAR THE WESTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
CURVES AWAY FROM DOLLY INTO GULF OF MEXICO EAST OF 90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM TROPICAL STORM DOLLY
CURVES FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 28N75W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...ACROSS EASTERN CUBA...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER NEAR THE GULF OF URABA ALONG THE COLOMBIA
COAST. A SECOND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 21N65W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ACROSS
PUERTO RICO INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THE 71W/72W TROPICAL
WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE TROUGHS. STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING NEAR 16N90W IN GUATEMALA NEAR
THE BORDER WITH MEXICO. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEEN OCCURRING OFF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
T.S. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE EASTERN COAST
OF THE U.S.A. ONE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 28N75W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...ACROSS
EASTERN CUBA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SECOND TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM A 27N66W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 20N69W. A THIRD
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 21N65W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ACROSS
PUERTO RICO INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N
TO 32N BETWEEN 30W AND 54W...AND FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 40W AND
60W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N19W TO
27N23W.

$$
MT

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