[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE JAN 29 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 6N12W 3N29W 5N41W 3N52W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 75 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 23W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRESSURE IS RETREATING EASTWARD PRECEDING THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY INLAND OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE THE TEXAS COAST INDICATED BY A WIND
SHIFT. THE ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAIN STATES JUST W OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL
ENTER THE GULF DURING THE NIGHT TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE NW GULF WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE
FROM 28N95W TO INLAND OVER LOUISIANA NEAR VERMILION BAY. BROAD
UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM S
MEXICO AND THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE TO OVER NE FLORIDA AND ALONG
THE CAROLINA COASTS. SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF
DUE TO THE APPROACHING FRONT AND THE RETREATING SURFACE HIGH.
DRY STABLE AIR REMAINS OVER THE S GULF AND S FLORIDA PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS S INTO THE
CARIBBEAN N OF 16N W OF 71W ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DISSIPATING ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS/
PUERTO RICO TO NEAR 15N73W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BASED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THE
CARIBBEAN IS UNDER SOME VERY DRY STABLE AIR AT THE UPPER LEVELS.
HOWEVER THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GENERATE SCATTERED
LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
GENERATING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
ISLANDS. DENSE LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
NICARAGUA DUE TO THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND THE REMNANTS OF
THE ABOVE FRONT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE
W ATLC W OF 72W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF
THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC AND N CARIBBEAN FROM 55W-72W
WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N53W
EXTENDING SSW ALONG 25N58W TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS/PUERTO RICO
NEAR 18N65W THEN DISSIPATING INTO THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM
E OF THE FRONT WITH COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERING THE
AREA W OF THE FRONT TO 75W. A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST
TO THE E OF THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 23N56W TO JUST E OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 15N62W GENERATING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE TROUGH AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. NARROWING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED DEEP IN THE TROPICS WITH
THE MEAN AXIS ALONG 47W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC N
OF 17N E OF 40W WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N22W TO AN
UPPER LOW NEAR 27N27W TO 17N32W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM OF THE UPPER LOW. THE
REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY BOUNDARY JUST DIP INTO THE REGION
THROUGH 32N29W TO 28N35W.

$$
WALLACE




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