[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 291801
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE JAN 29 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1730 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 4N26W 5N43W 2N51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 23W-35W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM N
OF AXIS W OF 47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...PUSHING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GULF
WATERS. 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS SHIFTING FROM FLORIDA INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. BUOY OBSERVATIONS
AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW SLY WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT
OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF BETWEEN THE
APPROACHING FRONT AND THE HIGH TO THE EAST. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
OFF THE TEXAS COAST THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY STRONG OFFSHORE
FLOW TO NEAR GALE FORCE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE GULF BEHIND
THE FRONT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NW GULF. THE PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE...AND THE HIGH PRES RAPIDLY E IN RESPONSE TO A
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MODERATE TO FRESH SLY FLOW WILL THIS WILL PUSH ANOTHER FRONT
INTO THE GULF BY THU...FOLLOWED AGAIN BY STRONG WINDS TO NEAR
GALE FORCE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM PUERTO RICO TO NEAR 16N74W.
1021 MB HIGH PRES IS BUILDING TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS BEHIND
THE FRONT. PUERTO RICO RADAR SHOWS MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. STRONG NLY FLOW FOLLOWS THE
FRONT...PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WINDWARD
AND MONA PASSAGES. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE THROUGH
TONIGHT. TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN ACTIVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COLOMBIAN
COAST...THROUGH THU IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG HIGH PRES TO THE
N.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MAIN FEATURE REMAINS A DEEP LAYERED LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING EWD
ALONG ROUGHLY 61W. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N55W
TO PUERTO RICO. UPPER DIVERGENCE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS
ENHANCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 120 E OF THE FRONT N OF 24N. FAIRLY AMPLIFIED UPPER
PATTERN TO THE EAST. BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 45W...IN
PHASE WITH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES. FRESH
TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EVIDENT S OF THE SURFACE HIGH BETWEEN
35W AND 55W...GENERALLY S OF 18N. FURTHER E...UPPER TROUGH IS
DIGGING NEAR THE CANARIES...WITH WEAK SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE
AFRICAN COAST. CONSEQUENTLY TRADES REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT E OF 35W.
LOOKING AHEAD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE UPPER TROUGH
BECOMES CUT OFF WED...LEAVING AN UPPER CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR
26N58W. AS RESULT...THE FRONT BECOMES STALLED AND
DIFFUSE...LEAVING A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 55W WITH POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW LINGER SHOWERS NEARBY. THIS LEAVES TRADE WIND FLOW
EAST OF THE ANTILLES TO AROUND 50W FAIRLY WEAK WED INTO THU. E
OF 50N...FRESH TO STRONG TRADES PERSIST DUE TO THE EXTENSION OF
HIGH PRES FROM THE EASTERN ATLC.
$$

CHRISTENSEN


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