[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280554
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON JAN 28 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0615 UTC

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 3N25W 2N35W EQ41W INTO NE
BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 60-80 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 20W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRES IS BUILDING ACROSS THE GULF WITH NLY WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. A 1028 MB SFC HIGH IS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY EXTENDING A RIDGE OVER FLORIDA AND THE ENTIRE GULF. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM IS A COLD FRONT THAT HAS PUSHED DOWN
TO CENTRAL CUBA AND EXTENDS WWD ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH A BAND OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. SCATTERED COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS ARE MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN GULF WHILE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE POOLED AGAINST THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRES WILL
SLOWLY SLIDE SE AND WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMAS TUE
MORNING. SLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF
LATE TODAY...AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF
TEXAS COAST TUE NIGHT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE/TROUGH
PATTERN DOMINATES THE AREA. A RIDGE IS OVER MEXICO AND THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
AND FLORIDA WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MAIN FEATURE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS A COLD FRONT THAT TRAILS
ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN INTO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS FRONT IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE
CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS NOW APPROACHING THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS AS NOTED ON SATELLITE PHOTOS. ACCORDING TO THE
GFS MODEL THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SE AND WILL BE
EXTENDED FROM HISPANIOLA TO HONDURAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS. THE SAME FRONT IS FORECAST TO AFFECT
PUERTO RICO LATE TONIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY.
THE TAIL END OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO INDUCE
PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE AND HISPANIOLA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA HAS MODERATE TRADEWINDS. POCKETS OF LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS DOT THE AREA MORE
CONCENTRATED IN A BAND EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS TO ISLA MARGARITA OFFSHORE VENEZUELA. THIS BAND MAY
PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN OVER THE UK/US VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ALSO AFFECTING FROM
WESTERN PANAMA TO NICARAGUA WHERE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS SLIGHTLY
CONFLUENT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASIN REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NW PORTION AND A
MODEST MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ELSEWHERE. WV IMAGERY SHOWS
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 31N65W THEN CONTINUES
SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS/CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. MORE
SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND E OF THE BAHAMAS. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER
THE W ATLC BEHIND THE FRONT. A 1014 MB SFC LOW IS NEAR 27N57W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS PARTICULARLY WEST OF
CENTER. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO HISPANIOLA
AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A WARM FRONT ALSO EXTENDS E FROM THE
LOW TO 27N47W. AT THIS POINT...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES NE TO
BEYOND 32N39W. THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO
MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND
MOVE TOWARD PUERTO RICO LATE TONIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO LINGER OVER THE EASTERN ATLC AND LIES ALONG 29W/30W FROM 24N
TO 34N. ALOFT...A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN DOMINATES THE
REGION. A DIGGING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLC
SUPPORTING THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT. THE CENTRAL ATLC
IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE WHILE ANOTHER
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE E ATLC WITH A CUT-OFF LOW
NW OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 32N24W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E
OF THE LOW CENTER IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
CANARY/MADEIRA ISLANDS. FURTHER SOUTH...A SWATH OF STRONG WLY
UPPER LEVEL WINDS IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC S OF 20N FROM
THE NE CARIBBEAN TO W AFRICA CROSSING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

$$
GR



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net