[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280013
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN JAN 27 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM LIBERIA TO BRAZIL AND IS CENTERED
ALONG 5N9W 2N30W 2S45W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
2N-4N BETWEEN 22W-24W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED DOWN TO W CUBA AND
EXTENDS W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 23N80W 21N90W 21N95W WITH
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER W CUBA.  A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES
INTO S MEXICO ALONG 18N95W 19N97W 22N100W .  SCATTERED TO BROKEN
LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO N OF THE FRONTS WHILE
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER FLORIDA.  HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE IS
NOW BUILDING OVER THE GULF WITH NLY WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF
W OF 90W WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  EXPECT A 1022
MB HIGH TO MOVE OVER N FLORIDA IN 24 HOURS AND PRODUCE MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER.  ALSO EXPECT RETURN SURFACE FLOW TO PRODUCE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 2100 UTC...THE COLD FRONT OVER W CUBA AND THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL HAS SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING S.  THE SAME FRONT OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA IS MOSTLY DRY.  THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA HAS MODERATE TRADEWINDS.  PATCHES OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE AREA ESPECIALLY OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS E OF PUERTO RICO...AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WLY FLOW WITH
VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA.  EXPECT... THE
COLD FRONT TO PUSH A LITTLE MORE S AND EXTEND FROM HISPANIOLA TO
BELIZE WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS IN 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT
PUERTO RICO AND THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS TO GET SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS DUE TO THE SAME FRONT N OF THE ISLANDS...OVER THE W
ATLANTIC.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 2100 UTC A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND EXTENDS
SW TO W CUBA ALONG 32N67W 25N75W 23N80W.  SCATTERED RAIN AND
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT.  A 1012 MB LOW IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 26N59W.  A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW
FROM THE LOW TO HISPANIOLA ALONG 23N63W 20N73W.  A WARM FRONT
EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO 26N50W.   A COLD FRONT CONTINUES NE TO
BEYOND 32N39W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND RAIN ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF
THE FRONTS.  A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG
32N28W 24N27W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 70W-80W.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-70W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 15W-30W.  AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED NEAR 30N26W.  UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE LOW
CENTER IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS
FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 11W-20W.  FURTHER S...WLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW
IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC S OF 20N FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES
TO W AFRICA.  EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO
MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITHIN
24 HOURS WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS.

$$
FORMOSA


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