[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192356
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT JAN 19 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 5N21W 6N26W 4N33W 2N42W
CROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 47W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 6N16W TO 4N21W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS W OF
42W WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM 40W-51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE
ITCZ AXIS TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 27W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE E US AND THE GULF W OF 83W
WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONT AT 19/2100 UTC EXTENDING FROM A 1008
MB LOW CENTERED OFF THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 28N84W ALONG 22N90W
OVER S MEXICO TO NEAR 17N93W. A SHORT STATIONARY BOUNDARY
EXTENDS W OF THE TEHUANTEPEC ISTHMUS NEAR 17N96W TO 20N97W
GIVING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WINDS APPROACHING GALE FORCE.
GALE FORCE WINDS REMAIN IN THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR THE SURFACE
LOW...SEE MIAHSFAT2 FOR MORE DETAILS. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E
FROM THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR CEDAR KEY
INTO THE W ATLC NEAR ST. AUGUSTINE. HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 26N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
COLD FRONT. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF THE GULF
W OF THE FRONT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE
TEXAS COAST AND LOUISIANA W OF ATCHAFALAYA BAY WHERE CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL. CLEARING SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE TOWARD THE E AS THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD EXITING THE GULF SUN MORNING. A
SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE W GULF ANCHORED OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH
AMERICA GIVING THE ENTIRE AREA DRY UPPER AIR AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING
SOME WIDELY ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS. THIS WILL CHANGE SHORTLY
AS THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE NW AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WHILE THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ON MON.

ATLANTIC...
BROAD UPPER HIGH DOMINATES THE W ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 26N67W
COVERING THE AREA W OF 50W. THE WARM FRONT FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC AT 19/2100 UTC ACROSS FLORIDA
NEAR ST. AUGUSTINE NE OUT OF THE REGION NEAR 32N77W. HEAVY RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF A LINE FROM DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA NE
TO BEYOND 32N78W. THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS FLORIDA LATER TONIGHT AND EXIT THE GULF ON SUN. A
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 40W-78W
ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 31N53W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS
IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N FROM 28W-50W WITH THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N29W EXTENDING SW ALONG
25N33W TO 21N41W WHERE IT BECOMES NEAR STATIONARY AND WEAKENS TO
20N52W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 26N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 22N-26N. BROAD UPPER RIDGE
COVERS THE TROPICS S OF A LINE FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG
16N46W TO A PEAK NEAR 24N20W INLAND OVER WESTERN SAHARA IN
AFRICA. OTHER THAN SCATTERED/BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS...THE E ATLC
REMAINS MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC.

$$
WALLACE




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