[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191737
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EST SAT JAN 19 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1745 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
FROM 7N12W 4N20W 2N40W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 45W...STAYING
JUST S OF THE EQUATOR TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S47W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM
14W-19W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM
5N-10N BETWEEN 23W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO
MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL U.S. SWD INTO THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM FROM
TAMPA BAY TO A 1007 MB GALE LOW PRES CENTER NEAR 27N91W. COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER SWD INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
AT THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 19N94W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY
AND CURVES NWD ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS TO 23N100W
27N105W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS
FROM 26N N OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BETWEEN 85W AND 90W...ALSO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT.
BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE NOTED W OF THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG AND JUST E
OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE
LOW CLOUDS MOVING RAPIDLY WWD ALONG THE BRISK TRADE WINDS.
THERE IS ALSO AN AREA OF BROKEN/OVERCAST CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE
SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS OF COSTA RICA AND NORTHERN
PANAMA.

ATLANTIC
WESTERN ATLC STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1014 MB LOW PRES
NEAR 32N74W TO 30N77W THEN BECOMES A WARM FRONT TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA NEAR 28N81W. BROKEN/OVERCAST CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE N OF THE FRONT. BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLC W OF 50W. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE
WITH DRY AIR AT THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS S OF
30N W OF 55W. E OF THE RIDGE A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS
FROM 32N35W 25N40W TO 17N50W. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM 32N30W 25N35W 22N42W THEN BECOMING STATIONARY TO
25N58W. BROKEN/OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM ON E OF FRONT N OF
25N. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 100 NM E OF FRONT
S OF 25N. NW OF THE FRONT SCATTERED/BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS E OF THE TROUGH.
AN 85-95 KT SUBTROPICAL JET EXTENDS FROM 15N44W 23N20W INTO
AFRICA. THE JET IS MARKED BY A BAND OF HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS
S OF ITS
AXIS.

$$
DGS

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net