[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041118
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI JAN 04 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N9W 4N23W 4N35W EQ48W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 7N BETWEEN 20W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF ALTHOUGH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS NOW IN THE ATLC AND CARIBBEAN. A
MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE SE US FROM
GEORGIA TO SW ALABAMA REINFORCING THE COLD AIR MASS. OVERCAST
COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERS THE CENTRAL GULF FROM
84W-93W AND A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF EXTENDING
FROM A SERIES OF HIGHS OVER THE MID E ATLC STATES. THIS SURFACE
RIDGE IS PRODUCING RETURN FLOW OVER THE FAR W GULF THUS IS
BEGINNING TO BREAK THE OVERCAST CLOUDS AND IS ALSO RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THAT SHOULD
FALL TO GALE FORCE LATER TODAY. SOME SCATTERED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS
ARE ALONG THE E COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND SPREADING
OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC IS STATIONARY IN THE CARIBBEAN
EXTENDING ACROSS HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W ACROSS E JAMAICA TO
17N79W THEN SSW TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 12N84W. BROKEN/
OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W
OF THE FRONT. THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF 73W. THE SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE E US AND GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS TO OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN AS WELL. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 72W S OF 17N TO
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND IS MORE OF A WIND SPEED
DIFFERENCE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
60 NM OF LINE FROM 17N74W TO 15N78W. A SMALL MID LEVEL TROUGH IS
IN THE SW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 15N79W TO THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA NEAR 12N84W. STRONG NE TO E WINDS DOMINATE THE
CARIBBEAN USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MANLY OVER THE THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 58W WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA THROUGH 32N54W ALONG
24N60W BECOMING STATIONARY NEAR 20N68W CONTINUING INTO THE
CARIBBEAN. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE FRONT. A JETSTREAM WITH WINDS
ESTIMATED FROM 80 TO 120 KT IN THE REGION EXTENDING FROM JUST E
OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 26N75W TO BEYOND 32N60W WITH EVEN
STRONGER WINDS N OF THE REGION. A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
OVER THE E US COVERS THE W ATLC W OF THE FRONT WITH BROKEN TO
OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ALSO COVERS THE AREA W OF
THE FRONT WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. BROAD UPPER LOW COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO
THE E ATLC CENTERED NEAR 21N37W WITH AN EQUALLY STRONG UPPER
HIGH JUST N OF THE REGION NEAR 36N30W. THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES
TO DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE N OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC S OF 24N
E OF 33W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE FAR
E ATLC DIPPING S TO JUST S OF THE CANARY ISLANDS E OF 20W WHILE
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC E OF THE COLD
FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N31W.

$$
WALLACE





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