[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040528
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI JAN 04 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 4N24W 1N40W EQ49W. SCATTERED
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 17W-33W AND S OF 3N TO ACROSS THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 33W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF ALTHOUGH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS NOW IN THE ATLC AND CARIBBEAN. A
MID/UPPER LOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE SE US CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REINFORCING THE COLD AIR MASS.
OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF THE GULF
WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A STRONG 1043 MB HIGH OVER
WEST VIRGINIA AND THE E US TO OVER THE GULF AND INTO THE
CARIBBEAN. THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS PRODUCING RETURN FLOW OVER THE
FAR W GULF AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC IS STATIONARY IN THE CARIBBEAN
EXTENDING ACROSS HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W ACROSS E JAMAICA TO
17N79W THEN SSW TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 12N84W. OVERCAST
COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF THE
FRONT. THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT COVERS
THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF 73W. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE E
US AND GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS TO OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AS WELL.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 70W S OF 17N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA IS MORE OF A WIND SPEED DIFFERENCE. SOME OVERCAST MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN
70W-76W. A SMALL MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR
18N82W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 81W-84W.
STRONG NE TO E WINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN USHERING IN SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS MANLY OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN AND THE LEEWARD/
VIRGIN ISLANDS AS WELL AS OF PUERTO RICO.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 60W WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA THROUGH 32N57W ALONG
22N64W BECOMING STATIONARY NEAR 20N70W AS IT ENTERS THE
CARIBBEAN. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE FRONT. A JETSTREAM WITH WINDS
ESTIMATED FROM 80 TO 130 KT IN THE REGION EXTENDING FROM JUST E
OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 26N75W TO BEYOND 32N62W WITH EVEN
STRONGER WINDS N OF THE REGION. A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
OVER THE E US COVERS THE W ATLC W OF THE FRONT WITH BROKEN TO
OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ALSO COVERING THE AREA W
OF THE FRONT. BROAD UPPER LOW COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE E
ATLC CENTERED NEAR 20N40W WITH AN EQUALLY STRONG UPPER HIGH JUST
N OF THE REGION NEAR 35N34W. THE UPPER LOW IS DRAWING TROPICAL
MOISTURE N OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC S OF 26N E OF 32W TO INLAND
OVER W AFRICA. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE FAR E ATLC DIPPING S
TO JUST S OF THE CANARY ISLANDS E OF 20W WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE
COVERING THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC E OF THE COLD FRONT ANCHORED BY
A 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N32W.

$$
WALLACE


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