[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221104
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI FEB 22 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 4N17W 3N38W EQ51W. SMALL
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N TO
S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 13W-22W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE
ITCZ AXIS FROM 24W-27W AND FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 38W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS W CUBA OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ALONG 83W COVERING THE ENTIRE GULF INTO
THE W ATLC. THIS UPPER FLOW IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
THE E PACIFIC ACROSS S MEXICO IN THE FORM OF THIN HIGH CLOUDS.
A COLD FRONT IS ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS EXTENDING FROM A 1008
MB LOW OVER W/CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO CORPUS CHRISTI THEN W OVER S
TEXAS. A WARM FRONT AS ALONG THE N GULF COAST STATES ACROSS NE
FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE INTO THE W ATLC LEAVING ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE TEXAS COAST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE GULF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

CARIBBEAN...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER
SOUTH AMERICA WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS COLOMBIA ACROSS W
CUBA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
STABLE AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT IN THE FAR
NW WHERE TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC IS BEING ADVECTED
ACROSS S MEXICO IN THE FORM OF THIN HIGH CLOUDS. MODERATE/STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED PATCHES OF
SHOWERS N OF A LINE FROM TRINIDAD ALONG 14N73W TO THE COAST OF
HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W. THE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
LATE SUN THROUGH TUE AS THE ATLC HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS.

ATLANTIC...
UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS
FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC W OF 68W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 21N FROM 50W-68W
WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N57W
EXTENDING SW TO 26N66W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT
N OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 28N77W CONTINUING AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS
THE N GULF COAST STATES JUST N OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF THE WARM FRONT
W OF 74W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT.
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S SPAIN/PORTUGAL ACROSS THE E ATLC
THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 31N24W ALONG 25N35W TO A PERSISTENT
UPPER LOW IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 18N43W TO E OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES NEAR 12N56W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NE OF THE AZORES. AN UPPER
HIGH IS IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 9N21W WITH A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE COVERING THE E AREA AND IS AMPLIFIED N OVER THE E ATLC. A
JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 130 KT IS WITHIN 250/300 NM IS
ALONG THE N PERIPHERY EXTENDING FROM 20N32W ACROSS THE CANARY
ISLANDS TO INLAND OVER NW AFRICA NEAR 31N10W. THIS UPPER FLOW
CONTINUES TO PUMP TROPICAL MOISTURE N WITHIN 200 NM OF LINE FROM
16N41W ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO OVER W AFRICA NEAR 30N10W.

$$
WALLACE



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