[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220533
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI FEB 22 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N19W 2N30W EQ49W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE
FROM EQ10W TO 2N20W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 3N35W TO 4N38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS THROUGH THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL TO OVER THE N GULF NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA OF
LOUISIANA COVERING THE ENTIRE GULF INTO THE W ATLC. A WARM FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA FROM DAYTONA BEACH
THROUGH TALLAHASSEE TO PENSACOLA CONTINUING INLAND TO A 1005 MB
LOW OVER E TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
INLAND OVER AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. THE SURFACE RIDGE HAS RETREATED EASTWARD IN ADVANCED
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL ENTER THE GULF LATER TODAY.

CARIBBEAN...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER
SOUTH AMERICA WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS COLOMBIA THROUGH
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
CARIBBEAN EXCEPT IN THE FAR NW WHERE TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE
E PACIFIC IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS S MEXICO IN THE FORM OF THIN
HIGH CLOUDS. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING
IN SOME ISOLATED PATCHES OF SHOWERS N OF A LINE FROM TRINIDAD
ALONG 14N74W TO THE E TIP ON HONDURAS. THE TRADE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATE SUN THROUGH TUE AS THE ATLC HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKENS.

ATLANTIC...
UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS
FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC W OF 70W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N FROM 55W-70W
WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N59W
EXTENDING SW TO 26N66W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT
TO JUST N OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 27N77W CONTINUING AS A WARM FRONT
ACROSS FLORIDA TO ALONG THE N GULF COAST STATES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF THE WARM FRONT W OF 75W
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S SPAIN/PORTUGAL ACROSS THE E ATLC THROUGH
AN UPPER LOW NEAR 31N24W ALONG 25N35W TO A PERSISTENT UPPER LOW
IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 18N44W TO JUST E OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES NEAR 12N58W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST W OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM 31N18W TO 24N23W. A SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE FRONT AND ANCHORED
BY A 1033 MB HIGH NE OF THE AZORES. AN UPPER HIGH IS IN THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N21W WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE E
AREA AND IS AMPLIFIED N OVER THE E ATLC. A JETSTREAM WITH WINDS
OF 90 TO 130 KT IS WITHIN 200/300 NM IS ALONG THE N PERIPHERY
EXTENDING FROM 20N33W ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO INLAND OVER
NW AFRICA NEAR 31N10W. THIS UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO PUMP
TROPICAL MOISTURE N WITHIN 200 NM OF LINE FROM 15N41W ACROSS THE
CANARY ISLANDS TO OVER W AFRICA NEAR 30N10W.

$$
WALLACE


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