[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 202327
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED FEB 20 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 5N20W 3N30W 1S44W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM
3S-EQ BETWEEN 40W-48W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FURTHER N FROM
2N-5N BETWEEN 47W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N FLORIDA NEAR 30N82W.  THE TAIL
END OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE
SE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 24N80W 24N86W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.  FURTHER N ... SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 26N-27N BETWEEN
87W-90W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF E TEXAS FROM
28N-30N BETWEEN 93W-95W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO W OF 90W.  AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE
FRONT.  SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE N GULF
N OF 26N.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE SRN
GULF.  EXPECT THE STATIONARY FRONT TO MOVE N AS A WARM FRONT AND
EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO LOUISIANA IN 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT
CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TRADES DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONG TRADES ALONG
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA TO GUATEMALA.  MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
DOTS THE CARIBBEAN SEA MOSTLY N OF 14N MOVING W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED N OF PANAMA NEAR
12N80W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS W OF 65W.  THE W EDGE OF A TROUGH
IS OVER THE FAR E CARIBBEAN E OF 65W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.  EXPECT A SLIGHT DECREASE OF SHOWERS
OVER OVER THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N64W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
ALONG 28N70W 24N80W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 29N
TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 62W-67W.  A 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N49W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER.  A WEAK
1018 MB LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 23N38W.  A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 20N41W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W.  A RIDGE IS
OVER THE W ATLANTIC BETWEEN 60W-70W.  A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 16N50W.
CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 10N-28N BETWEEN 40W-60W.  AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC NEAR 6N22W.  ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW IS E OF 40W.  A PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND A 90-110
KT JETSTREAM IS OVER THE NW FLANK OF THE CIRCULATION PRODUCING
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ALONG 10N45W 22N30W 30N10W.

$$
FORMOSA




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