[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201738
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED FEB 20 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N13W 3N25W 2N40W EQUATOR AT 48W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITH 60 NM EITHER
SIDE OF AXIS W OF 43W AND FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 47W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH WLY WINDS ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA.
A 100-120 KT JETSTREAM IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF FROM OFF THE
N TEXAS COAST TO NEAR TAMPA BAY. SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS
ARE MOVING EWD ALONG THE JET...WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE S OF 25N. A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE GULF  THROUGH
THE FLORIDA STRAITS ALONG 24N88W WHERE IT IS DISSIPATING TO
23N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE FRONT E OF
87W. AN ISOLATED TSTMS DEVELOPED WITHIN 60 NM 27N90W..BUT WILL
LIKELY DISSIPATE SOON. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE NE GULF
ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH OVER FLORIDA NEAR 30N82W.

CARIBBEAN...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OFF THE
COLOMBIA COAST NEAR 11N77W. A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGES
EXTEND FROM THE CIRCULATION NW ACROSS NICARAGUA TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDS NE FROM THE CIRCULATION TO
HISPANIOLA CONTINUING INTO THE ATLC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
STABLE AIR COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT FOR SO SCATTERED
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO STRONG
ELY TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED N OF 17N FROM
HISPANIOLA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.

ATLANTIC...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE WESTERN ATLC N OF 27N W
OF 75W. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE ATLC NEAR
32N65W TO 26N74W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 90
NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. UPPER RIDGE AXIS
FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS NE FROM HISPANIOLA TO BEYOND 32N51W.
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH E E OF THE RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM 32N131W
TO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 17N50W CONTINUING SW TO 12N57W.
A 105-115 KT SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM IS SE OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM 19N46W TO 25N33W WHERE THE WINDS INCREASE TO 135-145 KT
AND CONTINUES NE TO 32N13W WHERE IT CURVES SE INTO AFRICA.
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WITHIN 500 NM SE OF THE JET IS BEING
ADVECTED NEWD. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS WITHIN 600 NM
NW OF THE JET W OF 40W. BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS SE OF THE
TROUGH AND JET. A WEAK 1019 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
25N38W WITH TROUGH TO 25N36W THEN SW TO 26N45W.

$$
DGS

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