[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180524
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON FEB 18 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 4N21W 1N32W 2N39W 1N45W 1N51W.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 125 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS
FROM 22W-30W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 30W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE GULF N OF
22N TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE
LEADING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO A
WEAKENING 1006 MB LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26N92W
CONTINUING ALONG 24N95W TO A SECOND OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCED 1005
MB LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N95W. A SECOND REINFORCING
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF OVER SW LOUISIANA NEAR VERMILION BAY
TO INLAND OVER TEXAS BETWEEN HOUSTON AND CORPUS CHRISTI. A
SQUALL LINE CONSISTING OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
AHEAD OF THE EASTERN FRONT EXTENDING WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM
28N88W ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR PANAMA CITY THEN S GEORGIA WEAKENING
SOMEWHAT OVER SOUTH CAROLINA. POLAR JET REMAINS OVER THE N GULF
COAST AND MERGES WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET WHICH EXTENDS FROM S
TEXAS ACROSS NE FLORIDA. MAXIMUM UPPER LEVEL WINDS WITHIN THE
JET ARE NEAR 110 KT ACROSS FAR S TEXAS AND THE NW GULF. THE
REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE GULF TONIGHT AND GIVE THE FIRST BOUNDARY AND EXTRA
PUSH...MOVING INTO THE E GULF AND FLORIDA LATER ON MON.

CARIBBEAN...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND THE
AXIS CENTERED ALONG 75W INTO THE W ATLC. BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT IS
DRAWING MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AS
FAR N AS W CUBA MOSTLY AS THIN HIGH CLOUDS. FARTHER E...UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE MORE CONFLUENT AND THUS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE LESSER
ANTILLES. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN
SOME PATCHES OF SHOWERS MOSTLY N OF 16N E OF 80W AND OVER ALL OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
FOR THE FIRST OF THE WEEK.

ATLANTIC...
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS TO BEYOND 32N
ALONG 75W COVERING THE AREA W OF 65W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS
OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 18N FROM 43W-65W WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N48W EXTENDING
SW TO 29N53W THEN W TO 30N60W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM
E OF THE FRONT. THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N38W ALONG 28N43W TO 26N51W WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE
IS AGAIN BUILDING S OVER THE W ATLC BRIDGING THE FRONT AND
COVERING THE AREA TO THE BAHAMAS. THE LARGE CUT-OFF UPPER LOW
THAT HAS PLAGUED THE E ATLC THE PAST WEEK IS RETREATING N AND IS
JUST E OF THE AZORES. THE TYPICAL E/W UPPER RIDGE AGAIN COVERS
THE TROPICS AND A JETSTREAM WITH MAX WINDS OF 100 KT IS WITHIN
175 NM ALONG THE N PERIPHERY EXTENDING FROM 15N38W BROADENING TO
ENCOMPASS THE AREA FROM 22N-35N E OF 38W TO OVER W AFRICA. THIS
UPPER FLOW IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE WITHIN 250 NM OF LINE
FROM 10N38W N OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO W AFRICA NEAR 21N16W.

$$
WALLACE





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