[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 172331
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN FEB 17 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N9W 3N30W 1S50W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 9W-23W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF THE AXIS TO THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 24W-40W. SCATTERED MODERATE S OF 7N BETWEEN 43W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF
NORTH AMERICA AND REACHES WELL INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THE POLAR JET HAS PLUNGED WELL TO THE S AND EXTENDS
FROM NEW MEXICO ACROSS TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...AND HAS CONVERGED WITH A JET STREAK WITHIN THE
SUBTROPICAL JET WHICH EXTENDS FROM NE MEXICO TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. MAXIMUM UPPER LEVEL WINDS WITHIN THE JET ARE NEAR 95
KT ACROSS FAR S TEXAS AND THE NW GULF. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TROUGH HAS PUSHED INTO THE N/CENTRAL GULF FROM NEAR
MOBILE ALABAMA SW TO 26N94W BUT HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
FARTHER SW TOWARDS VERACRUZ MEXICO. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
FRONT IS QUICKLY WASHING OUT AND HAS SOMEWHAT MERGED WITH A
TOPOGRAPHICALLY FORCED 1006 MB SURFACE LOW LOCATED NEAR 21N95W.
A SQUALL LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS LIES WITHIN 90 NM E
OF THE FRONT N OF 27N AND SEVERAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND
TORNADO WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...SE ALABAMA...AND WESTERN GEORGIA. A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT LOCATED OVER SE TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF
TONIGHT AND GIVE THE FIRST BOUNDARY AND EXTRA PUSH...MOVING E
INTO THE E GULF AND FLORIDA BY MON.

CARIBBEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 76W WITH THE
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL HIGH LOCATED BETWEEN JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. BROAD SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS DRAWING
MOISTURE NWD FROM CONVECTION OVER THE E PACIFIC WATERS ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREATER ANTILLES. THIS IS
PRIMARILY VISIBLE AS WIDESPREAD CIRRUS W OF THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS. FARTHER E...UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE MORE CONFLUENT AND THUS
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS LOCATED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ESPECIALLY
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF SHOWERS ARE
MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW...WHICH
IS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE EXCEPT FOR 20-25 KT OFF THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA. ONE PATCH OF SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO AND WILL AFFECT
HISPANIOLA LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
ARE ALSO AFFECTING THE AREA FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA WESTWARD
ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA MAINLY DUE TO A NORTHWARD
INFLECTION OF THE ITCZ.

ATLANTIC...
MUCH OF THE SUBTROPICAL AND TROPICAL ATLC IS DOMINATED BY AN
UPPER RIDGE FROM THE BAHAMAS NORTHWARD ALONG 75W...AND AN
EXPANSIVE TROUGH WHICH SPANS E OF 70W TO AFRICA. A SURFACE RIDGE
IS LOCATED OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO N/CENTRAL
FLORIDA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE LANDSCAPE. A COLD
FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC HAS EASED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA
AND EXTENDS FROM 32N49W TO 30N54W TO 31N62W BUT IS ONLY
ASSOCIATED WITH AN OVERCAST DECK OF LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITHIN
75 NM OF ITS BOUNDARY. FARTHER E...THE ISOBARIC PATTERN IS
RATHER WEAK DUE TO A LARGE CUT-OFF LOW ENE OF THE AZORES. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW E OF 40W IS SOUTHWESTERLY ALL THE WAY TO AFRICA AND
THERE ARE TWO EMBEDDED JET CORES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
JET. THE SOUTHERNMOST ONE EXTENDS FROM 14N40W TO WESTERN SAHARA
AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 400-NM WIDE SWATH OF CIRRUS WITH WINDS
TO 85 KT. THE SECOND LIES FROM 28N30W PAST MADEIRA ISLAND TO
NORTHERN MOROCCO WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 90 KT. FARTHER S IN THE
TROPICS...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PULLING MOISTURE NWD TO
10N WITH SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FORMING IN THE VICINITY
OF THE ITCZ.

$$
BERG


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