[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152342
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI FEB 15 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 3N25W 3N36W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 43W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
180 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 14W-18W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF A LINE
FROM 1N24W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 6N10W AND WITHIN 150 NM N
OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 21W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
RETURN SURFACE FLOW AROUND THE 1028 MB HIGH OVER S GEORGIA IS
FIRMLY ESTABLISHED THIS EVENING GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N W OF 88W TO INLAND OVER TEXAS
AND LOUISIANA MOVING E OVER MISSISSIPPI AND SW ALABAMA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS WITH NO
SHOWERS INDICATED. MODERATE SE SURFACE WINDS DOMINATE THE W GULF
WHILE LIGHTER NE TO E WINDS DOMINATE THE E GULF. BROAD UPPER
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA COVERS THE GULF WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING OVER CUBA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS STREAMING FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS S MEXICO TO OVER
THE GULF BUT IS ONLY PRODUCING THIN HIGH CLOUDS. THE NEXT FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF SAT NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG HIGH
SURFACE PRESSURE OVER THE ATLC DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN AND
GENERATING STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THESE
TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
MAINLY BETWEEN 12N-17N. THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DOMINATED BY AN
UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND DRAWING UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO OVER THE
W CARIBBEAN. OTHERWISE..LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE
AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS E OVER
THE W ATLC WITH A 1027 MB HIGH JUST NW OF BERMUDA AND DOMINATING
THE ATLC E OF 40W WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE IMMEDIATE REGION OF THE
FRONT THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC ENTERING THE REGION
NEAR 32N52W TO 27N68W WHERE IT IS BEGINNING TO PUSH N AS A WARM
FRONT OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS TO NEAR ANDROS ISLAND. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75/90 NM
N OF THE WARM FRONT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM E OF COLD
FRONT N OF 28N. THE ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYERED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS
THROUGH 32N54W SW INTO THE W ATLC TO 25N66W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE W ATLC S OF 30N W OF 60W. A LARGE
UPPER LOW IS IN THE E ATLC NEAR 30N29W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
COVERING THE AREA N OF 20N E OF 40W. A SURFACE 997 MB LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 31N29W WITH THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT
EXTENDING N AND THE COLD FRONT ENTERING THE E ATLC NEAR 32N18W
JUST W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS ALONG 24N23W THEN WESTWARD TO
16N36W DISSIPATING TO NEAR 18N53W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 25N FROM 23W-33W.

$$
WALLACE




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