[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 151803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI FEB 15 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N13W 3N25W 3N36W 2S46W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 12W-15W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 17W-23W.  SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 3S-EQ BETWEEN
43W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N71W.  SELY
RETURN FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE NOTED NEAR KEY WEST FLORIDA.  MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NW
GULF ALONG THE COASTS OF NE MEXICO...TEXAS...AND LOUISIANA.
SURFACE WINDS ARE 10-15 KT OVER MOST OF THE GULF...AND 20 KT
ALONG THE COAST OF W CUBA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 83W.
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE
OVER MOST OF THE GULF W OF 86W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF.  EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE  OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS DOT THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHOWERS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN
WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM N COLOMBIA TO W CUBA.  STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN
WHERE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE
STREAMING IN FROM THE E PACIFIC.  EXPECT MORE SHOWERS ESPECIALLY
W OF 70W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND EXTENDS SW ALONG
32N56W 27N68W.   A WARM FRONT CONTINUES W TO THE BAHAMAS ALONG
26N74W 24N80W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONTS.  A DEEP LAYERED LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
32N29W.  A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S ALONG 32N20W 25N23W 21N30W
20N40W 21N50W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT
N OF 22N.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC
W OF 75W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 22N BETWEEN
60W-75W.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN
40W-60W.  A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED NEAR 32N29W TO A BASE IN THE TROPICS NEAR 15N50W.
EXPECT... BOTH COLD FRONTS TO PROGRESS E DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH SHOWERS.

$$
FORMOSA





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