[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140606
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU FEB 14 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
10N14W 4N20W 2N30W 1N40W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 46W...TO
1S48W AT THE COAST OF EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 6N TO 1S BETWEEN
10W AND THE COASTS OF BRAZIL AND FRENCH GUIANA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST 60W...AND THE
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH EASTERN NEVADA
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. LET US SEE WHAT HAPPENS IF AND WHEN
THIS SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 30N
BETWEEN 104W IN MEXICO AND 120W. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW/HIGH
PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SETTLES INTO THE AREA
IN THE WAKE OF THE MOST RECENT COLD FRONT. THAT COLD FRONT STILL
CUTS ACROSS THE AREA...FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AS OF THIS BULLETIN AND THE 14/0000 UTC SURFACE MAP.
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST COAST FROM VIRGINIA
TO THE CAROLINAS TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN JUST EAST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N77W TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE
IN FLORIDA TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO MEXICO JUST EAST
OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. A STATIONARY FRONT GOES FROM THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 17N96W TO
24N101W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDER WITHIN 30 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 27N75W BEYOND 32N71W. BROKEN MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS ARE BREAKING UP IN COVERAGE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF A LINE FROM 28N75W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO 23N79W...INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO 20N84W...TO THE EASTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 19N88W...TO 17N91W NEAR THE MEXICO/GUATEMALA
BORDER. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 90W
AND 93W IN GUATEMALA AND MEXICO.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A WEAK AND WEAKENING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 17N54W INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA NEAR 18N63W. THIS IS ALL THAT REMAINS OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW
THAT COVERED THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW STILL MOVES FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN JUST WEST OF SOUTH AMERICA AND SOUTH OF PANAMA AND
COSTA RICA...CROSSES CENTRAL AMERICA AND COLOMBIA...ENTERING THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...AND MOVING TO THE NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE
AREA. HIGH CLOUDS ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EASILY BRING OUT THIS
POINT. THE HIGH CLOUDS CUT ACROSS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/
SUBSIDENCE PRACTICALLY EVERYWHERE. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN
CLUSTERS OF CLOUDS NORTH OF 16N60W 17N71W...BETWEEN WESTERN
JAMAICA AND SOUTHERN CUBA/SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...AND NORTH OF 18N
WEST OF 80W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN EAST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N30W TO 26N40W 26N50W. A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 26N50W TO 26N60W...A TROUGH
CONTINUES FROM 26N60W TO 29N63W. THE PART OF THE FRONT BETWEEN
38W AND 63W CUTS THROUGH THE BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 50W FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT WAS IN BETWEEN THE AZORES AND THE CANARY
ISLANDS 24 HOURS AGO HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD AND NOW IS MUCH CLOSER
TO THE MOROCCO COAST...IF NOT ON TOP OF IT ALREADY. BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW IS MORE READILY APPARENT THAN AN EXACT CENTER OF
CIRCULATION ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 32N16W JUST EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE MADEIRA
ISLANDS.

$$
MT




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net