[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED FEB 13 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 5N16W 3N26W 1N40W 1S48W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 23W-48W WITHIN
240NM N OF AXIS AND 150NM S OF AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED IN THE NW GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 28N95W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OVER THE NW HALF OF
THE GULF.  A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA
TO THE YUCATAN OF MEXICO ALONG 27N82W 24N87W 21N90W THEN
CONTINUES INLAND OVER S MEXICO TO 17N92W. SURFACE WINDS ARE S-SW
20-25 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SURFACE WINDS ARE N-NW AT 20-25 KT
BEHIND THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE N GULF.  A JET MAX EXISTS IN THE
NE GULF WITH WINDS UP TO 120KT.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE NW
GULF.  BY TONIGHT THE FRONT WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA.  WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HRS WINDS IN THE WESTERN GULF WILL SHIFT BACK
TOWARDS A SOUTHERLY FLOW.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A SQUALL LINE IS E OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT
IN THE GULF AND IS LOCATED IN THE EXTREME NW CARIBBEAN.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE SQUALL
LINE.  MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND
CENTRAL AMERICA WITH STRONGEST WINDS UP TO 25 KT ALONG THE COAST
OF N COLOMBIA.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THERE IS WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN OF MEXICO AND GUATEMALA.  MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND
CENTRAL AMERICA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 65-70W.  STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS MOST OF THE AREA. IN THE SW AND S CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL AMT OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS
ORIGINATING FROM CONVECTION OVER S AMERICA AND THE PACIFIC
ITCZ.  DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS...EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS AND IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
THE REGION

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS OVER THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND WITHIN 60NM OF THE SQUALL LINE.  A
COLD FRONT IS ENTERING THE REGION OFF OF THE FLORIDA NE COAST.
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N36W AND EXTENDS
SW TO 28N40W 28N48W.  A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES W
TO 27N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONTS.  AN
AREA OF GALE WINDS IS OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA N OF 28N
BETWEEN 70W TO 80W...AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HRS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC
CENTERED AT 24N62W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
EXTENDING FROM 32N40W TO 15N48W.  AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
NE OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 32N12W. THE COLD FRONT
AFOREMENTIONED OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA SHOULD EXTEND FROM
32N63W SW TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS.

$$
WALTON/LANDSEA



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