[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082304
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI FEB 08 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N9W 4N13W 3N21W ALONG THE
EQUATOR FROM 30W TO 44W THE INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
1S50W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3.5N TO INLAND OVER
SW AFRICA BETWEEN 5W-7W. LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N BETWEEN 12W-19W.
SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG  CONVECTION
ARE FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 8W-10W INCLUDING THE COAST OF LIBERIA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERING THE E US AND INTO THE NW ATLC
CONTINUES TO PULL NE OUT OF THE REGION. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT REMAINS IN THE W ATLC BECOMING STATIONARY AS IT CROSSES
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE CONTINUING ALONG
24N88W AND IS BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE FROM THERE INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 21N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE FRONT E OF 88W WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE FROM 91W-94W. A SHORTWAVE
UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND N TEXAS AND WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SE US OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GULF IS CURRENTLY UNDER
SW UPPER LEVEL WINDS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER RIDGE IN THE
CARIBBEAN EXTENDING INTO THE W ATLC. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE BY SAT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
GULF THROUGH SAT NIGHT AND STRENGTHEN SUN/MON THEN MOVE E OF THE
AREA TUE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE TEXAS COAST LATE
TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED JUST S OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS EXTENDING
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE W ATLC
COVERING THE CARIBBEAN W OF 78W. AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR MARTINIQUE NW ACROSS HAITI TO
THE E TIP OF CUBA DOMINATING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC COUPLED WITH THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER
SOUTH AMERICA IS PRODUCING A RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE CARIBBEAN AND IS GENERATING STRONG SURFACE EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
UPPER AIR ARE LIMITING ANY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER... THE STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN SOME LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE E US AND NW ATLC EXTENDS THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION THROUGH 32N72W TO ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. A FRONT
WILL WEAKEN THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS A SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE OFF THE SE US COAST SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUING MOVING
EASTWARD AND WEAKEN LATE MON INTO TUE. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD SE ACROSS THE W ATLC BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT THROUGH WED
INCREASING WINDS OVER THE AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E
ATLC N OF 18N FROM 16W-32W WITH THE UPPER LOW NEAR 28N21W. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 29N22W
JUST W OF THE WESTERN MOST CANARY ISLANDS TO 22N20W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 26N-31N
BETWEEN 14W-21W INCLUDING THE CANARY ISLANDS. THE CENTRAL ATLC
IS DOMINATED BY DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 28N50W. AN E/W UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 4N TO 40W AND A JETSTREAM
WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 140 KT ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM 15N40W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA NEAR
20N16W.

$$
WALLACE




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