[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081740
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI FEB 08 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS PRETTY ACTIVE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON CLOSE TO THE
AFRICAN COAST. IT AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 5N20W 2N30W 2N42W
EQUATOR AT 50W INTO NE BRAZIL. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-7N EAST OF 21W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N WEST OF
27W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 15Z...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF REGION THROUGH CENTRAL
FLORIDA...THEN CONTINUES SW TO NEAR 25N86W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY. THE WEAK 1014 MB LOW ANALYZED OVER THE EASTERN GULF
THIS MORNING HAS DISSIPATED AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES SE ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE GULF. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT FURTHER
SEWD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AS UPPER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THEN LIFTS
OUT TO THE NE. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL STALL FROM
SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THEN DISSIPATES. A BROKEN
BAND OF MAINLY LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. STRENGTHENING HIGH PRES
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY INVADE THE AREA DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND
SEAS ACROSS THE GULF AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. NOW...LIGHT TO MODERATE N TO NE WINDS ARE WITHIN 120 NM
BEHIND THE FRONT. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE N GULF STATES
AND WATERS WITH A WEAK 1020 MB HIGH JUST N OF TAMPA BAY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS BRINGING SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
THE EPAC ACROSS N-CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
STRONG SFC HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF AREA REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN FRESH ELY WINDS
CARRYING ON FRAGMENTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SOME OF THEM ARE
NOW AFFECTING THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH
A FEW SHORT LIVED SHOWERS. A WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS
ALONG 81W IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN CONTINUES
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH A DRY AND
STABLE ATMOSPHERE. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE ALSO EVIDENT JUST SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. A QUIKSCAT
PASS FROM AROUND 1100 UTC INDICATED ELY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT
BLOWING ACROSS THE BASIN. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY
AS HIGH PRES OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN MAINTAINS A FAIRLY TIGHT
PRES GRADIENT OVER THE REGION.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MAIN FEATURE REMAINS A 1027 MB HIGH SITUATED SE OF BERMUDA NEAR
27N50W WITH A RIDGE COVERING THE WEST AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS
SYSTEM IS PRODUCING A SWATH OF MODERATE ELY WINDS ACROSS THE N
TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
INTO THE AREA NEAR NEAR 31N76W THEN CONTINUES SW ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. A 80 NM WIDE BAND OF LOW/MID
CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS IS RELATED TO THE FRONT. ALOFT...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE W-CENTRAL ATLC WITH MODERATE TO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND IMPLIED DRY AIR MASS. FURTHER EAST...AN
UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTH AND WESTWARD JUST WEST OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS...WITH AN ASSOCIATED 1011 MB SURFACE LOW SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THOSE ISLANDS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
LOW TO THE SE TO 28N195W THEN SW TO NEAR 21N27N. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM N SOUTH AMERICA TO THE AFRICAN COAST. THIS
CLOUDINESS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A JET STREAM BRANCH WITH CORE
WINDS OF 90-110 KT.

$$
GR






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