[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062354
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED FEB 06 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N8W 5N13W 4N23W 2N31W 2N42W
CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 45W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 15W-19W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S
OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 26W-18W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 28W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MAJOR COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF AND AT 2100 UTC
ENTERING THE GULF NEAR PANAMA CITY FLORIDA ALONG 26N90W 21N94W
ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO S MEXICO NEAR 18N94W. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE OVER THE S GULF W OF THE FRONT. A SQUALL LINE
CONSISTING OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM 28N86W ACROSS
FLORIDA NEAR TALLAHASSEE AND SE GEORGIA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. THE
BROAD DEEP LAYER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT COVERS E US
AND THE GULF WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 120 KT
COVERS THE NW GULF FROM LAGUNA MORALES MEXICO TO THE BIG BEND
AREA OF FLORIDA. THE SE GULF IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE
ANCHORED OVER W CUBA. DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE REGION W OF THE
FRONT TO OVER LOUISIANA AND TEXAS...AS WELL AS THE SE GULF AHEAD
OF THE FRONT OVER S FLORIDA. THE MAIN ENERGY WITH THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO EXIT THE GULF OVERNIGHT WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION
WILL WEAKEN AND REMAIN IN THE GULF THROUGH FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER HIGH IS ANCHORED OVER W CUBA NEAR HAVANA COVERING THE
NW CARIBBEAN WITH AN UPPER SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR SAINT LUCIA S OF JAMAICA
TO N BELIZE. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG RIDGE OVER THE ATLC WATERS
AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA IS PRODUCING A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT IS ABLE TO GENERATE STRONG EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR
DOMINATE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...THE TRADE WINDS ARE
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM
OF LINE FROM SW OF JAMAICA NEAR 18N80W INLAND OVER NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS TO NEAR 14N86W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER HIGH OVER W CUBA NE TO
BEYOND 32N70W AND COVERS THE ATLC W OF 50W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE
COVERING THE SAME AREA ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH SE OF BERMUDA
NEAR 28N59W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC N OF
18N FROM 28W-50W WITH A WEAK ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE
REGION NEAR 32N32W EXTENDING SW TO 27N38W. WIDELY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 26N31W TO
BEYOND 32N29W. BROAD E/W UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC
WITH A JETSTREAM ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER RIDGE WITH
WINDS OF 90 TO 110 KT WITHIN 225/250 NM ALONG A LINE FROM 15N52W
TO INLAND OVER AFRICA NEAR 14N15W.

$$
WALLACE




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