[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061745
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED FEB 06 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 4N25W 2N35W EQUATOR AT 49W
INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 80-100 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS EAST OF 19W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS FOUND NEAR 4N24W...3N27W...AND WITHIN 90 NM SOUTH
OF AXIS BETWEEN 31W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO FOLLOWED BY
GALE FORCE WINDS AND SEAS UP TO 10 FT. AS OF 15Z...THE FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE MEXICAN COAST JUST
SOUTH OF TUXPAN. TAMPICO REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT
THIS MORNING WHILE A SHIP NEAR THE COAST OF VERACRUZ BRIEFLY
REPORTED WINDS OF 45 TO 50 KT. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 1235Z
SHOWED NLY WINDS OF 25 TO 45 KT BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NW
QUADRANT OF THE GULF. A GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THIS PORTION OF THE GULF DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE AREA REACHING FROM THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND TO BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS EVENING...THEN WILL
WEAKEN FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO EAST BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY THU.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY WELL DEFINED ON SATELLITE
PHOTOS WITH LIGHTING DATA DEPICTING SCATTERED TSTMS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT N OF 25N. A SQUALL LINE IS ANALYZED OVER SE ALABAMA AND
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE ALONG 93W/94W. A 1025 MB SFC HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLC
ENVELOPING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
GULF WITH SLY RETURN FLOW AND WARM TEMPERATURES. THIS FEATURE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE OCEAN. ALOFT...A LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUPPORTS THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD
FRONT GIVING MOST OF THE AREA STRONG SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NO MAJOR CHANGE HAS EXPERIENCED THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE
THE CARIBBEAN SEA 24 HOURS AGO. THE BASIN REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS SUPPRESSING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE RIDGE ENVELOPS THE GREATER
ANTILLES AND THE BAHAMAS. SFC HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF AREA
DOMINATES THE REGION WITH FRESH TRADE WINDS AND POCKETS OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS...MORE NUMEROUS OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN. THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR REVEALS SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE UK/US VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO
INCLUDING ALSO THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE ALSO EVIDENT INLAND OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. A QUIKSCAT
PASS FROM AROUND 1100 UTC INDICATED ELY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AS USUAL
JUST OFFSHORE THE COLOMBIAN COAST. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRES OVER THE W-CENTRAL ATLC KEEPS A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE REGION.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1025 MB HIGH SITUATED NEAR 29N58W DOMINATES THE W AND CENTRAL
ATLC. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 31N36W
THEN CONTINUES SW TO 26N46W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NOW LIES ALONG 36W/37W FROM 22N-29N.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE
TROUGH AXIS N OF 26N. FINALLY...THE E ATLC IS DOMINATING BY A
1034 SFC HIGH LOCATED OVER THE IBERIAN PENINSULA. A SFC TROUGH
IS ALONG 15W...OVER THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA...N OF 17N TO THE E
CANARY ISLANDS.

A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. A
JET-STREAM BRANCH WITH CORE WINDS OF 90-110 KT IS OBSERVED OVER
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEEN ADVECTED BY
THIS JET FROM N SOUTH AMERICA ALL THE WAY NE TO THE AFRICAN
COAST.

$$
GR


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